The Ceasefire Is Good News … For Now
President Trump used harsh and even profane warnings to Iran to twist arms for a ceasefire. The war isn’t over, but this is an important moment.
Just before President Donald Trump’s Tuesday 8:00 p.m. EDT deadline, he announced a “double sided CEASEFIRE” to further negotiations for ending the war. The U.S. has “already met and exceeded all Military objectives,” he boasted, and Iran’s 10-point proposal is “a workable basis on which to negotiate,” paired with America’s own 15-point plan. It’s actually triple-sided because Israel agreed as well.
Why, it’s almost as if that was predictable. Oh — wait.
“My prediction,” wrote our Douglas Andrews yesterday morning, “is that Iran will stave off its extinction, and our negotiators will reach a deal just prior to 8 o'clock ET.” He wryly added, “It’ll be the greatest negotiation in history, and you’ll never have seen anything like it anywhere in the world.”
Interestingly, Trump named Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir in his announcement, but he left out Mojtaba Khamenei. Iran’s impotent, wounded dunce of a supreme leader might actually be incapacitated.
So, what’s in Iran’s proposal? According to The Wall Street Journal:
Nour News, an Iranian publication backed by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, published this list:
- The U.S. must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing non-aggression.
- Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Acceptance that Iran can enrich uranium for its nuclear program.
- Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran.
- Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iranian institutions.
- End of all United [Nations] Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.
- End of all International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program.
- Compensation payment to Iran for war damage.
- Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
- Cease-fire on all fronts, including Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The United States is not going to agree to continued uranium enrichment or to withdraw U.S. forces from the region. In fact, most of the 10 points are not actually negotiable until Iran entirely forgoes its nuclear program — which is, after all, most of the point of Operation Epic Fury in the first place. But we’ll see what Trump can work out.
This ceasefire is almost certainly thanks in large part to Trump’s hyperbolic and sometimes profane bluster in recent days. His harsh words seem to have moved the needle toward his desired actions.
Yet he took a lot of flak — deservedly so — from every side for his vulgar post on Easter morning:
Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F**kin’ Strait, you crazy bast*rds, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP
That’s inflammatory, unnecessary, and simply unacceptable from an American president. On Tuesday morning, he was cleaner but every bit as forceful:
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. … God Bless the Great People of Iran!
Those posts and some of his other seemingly unhinged comments have prompted predictable (and again, somewhat justifiable) howls of outrage. “America should only wage just wars, and waging a just war means being subject to certain restraints,” writes incensed conservative John Daniel Davidson. “Just war precludes immoral means — like the mass killing of civilians — to achieve victory. Even threatening such means, as Trump has done, damages the moral conscience of a people as much as it degrades the moral standing of a nation. Simply put, threatening to do something intrinsically immoral, even if you don’t actually do it, is wrong.”
The outrage was worse from the Trump-deranged Democrats, who, naturally, go completely off the rails in their response. Whereas they acted as if they’d never heard of the 25th Amendment during four years of Joe Biden’s virtually incapacitated autopen presidency, they suddenly rediscovered it this week. Dozens of Democrats issued the same talking points, saying some variation of “we need to invoke the 25th Amendment.”
“Donald Trump’s instability is more clear and dangerous than ever,” Nancy Pelosi wrote on X. “If the Cabinet is not willing to invoke the 25th Amendment and restore sanity, Republicans must reconvene the Congress to end this war.”
Moreover, Trump was impeached twice during his first term, and Democrats will immediately set to work on a third time if they win the House in November. Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey expressed a common sentiment in his party, insisting, “The House must bring up impeachment articles, and the Senate needs to remove a president who wants to commit war crimes.”
Trump’s comments were awful, but social media posts aren’t war crimes. In fact, Iran has been the nation committing war crimes for decades — targeting civilians, using human shields, torturing and raping, etc. Ultimately, the president’s comments provide an opportunity to remind yourself and others of the usual Trump maxim: Take him seriously, not literally.
As for the ceasefire, our Mark Alexander warns, “If Trump makes a ‘deal’ with Iran, Americans need to understand we can’t trust an Islamist terrorist regime. We have been at war with Iran for the last 50 years and will continue to be until democracy prevails over its fascist theocracy, if it ever does.” Donald Trump is not Charlie Brown, though, and he’s unlikely to fall for Lucy’s football snatch as Joe Biden or Barack Obama would.
“If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us, I think we can make an agreement,” Vice President JD Vance said. “If they’re going to lie, if they’re going to cheat, if they’re going to try to prevent even the fragile truce that we’ve set up from taking place, that they’re not going to be happy.”
Already, Iran has had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year since Trump retook office. Biden’s resurrected nuclear deal went out the window. Tehran’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, and others) are largely obliterated. Political analyst David Harsanyi quips, “Other than losing their entire navy, air force, a few strata of political leadership, top military minds, over 1,000 senior IRGC and Basij commanders, air defense and radar sites, numerous scientists, ballistic missile stockpiles and most launchers, drone and missile factories, proxies, etc.. Iran has the upper hand.” The sarcasm is even more obvious given that China and Russia, Iran’s primary major allies, have largely sat on the sidelines as the U.S. and Israel severely weaken Iran.
This war may be a long way from over, but I also don’t believe it’s a forever war or quagmire. I also don’t think the Iranian people would be sad to see Trump succeed in so weakening the fanatical Islamist regime that it collapses. Far from destroying Iranian civilization, that would save it.
