The Patriot Post® · What Is Trump's Iran Plan?

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to shipping traffic, and has been for roughly two weeks now, as Iran acts to counter the U.S.-Israel joint strike against the Islamic Republic’s decades-long threat.

While the American and Israeli militaries have effectively destroyed Iran’s air force and navy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains largely intact. Moreover, Tehran continues to launch missiles and drones from its massive stockpile, though there has been a dramatic decrease in the launch volume. Those persistent air assaults have kept the Strait closed.

This is asymmetrical warfare. Iran knows it is massively outmatched by American state-of-the-art weaponry and military capabilities; therefore, it acts not to defeat the U.S. on the battlefield but to avoid losing by simply surviving. It may sound tautological, but Tehran wins if it does not lose, whereas the U.S. loses if it does not win unconditionally.

For the Islamic regime, this isn’t about defeating the U.S. military; it’s about preventing the eradication of its own hold on power. Tehran knew that closing the Strait of Hormuz would have a cascading negative impact on global trade, particularly with regard to energy. The longer the Strait stays closed, the more pressure it puts on President Donald Trump and the U.S. to end this campaign quickly.

That said, the notion that the Trump administration didn’t plan for and foresee this exact scenario is nonsense. For a long time, the Pentagon has recognized the Strait’s impact on global economics. That it has happened does not mean it wasn’t anticipated.

In fact, contrary to popular opinion, Trump may have banked on it for his broader geopolitical goals.

Consider a couple of intriguing factors. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait. China purchases over 80% of Iran’s oil, which accounts for roughly 14% of Beijing’s overseas oil imports. Furthermore, Beijing gets Iranian oil on the cheap — roughly $8 to $10 per barrel below market value. This source of cheap oil is now cut off, which, of course, negatively impacts China’s already slowing economy.

Iran is an ally of China, yet Iran’s actions are hurting its partner. How will this impact China and its alliance with Tehran? One thing is evident: neither one is benefiting.

Meanwhile, another Iranian ally is Russia. Unfortunately, the closing of the Strait benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin, as it makes Russian oil that much more valuable, boosting a Russian economy that has been sinking under the weight of Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Putin wants the Iranian regime to hold out for as long as possible. Neither he nor Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to see the Islamic regime fall. They need an anti-Israel, anti-U.S., anti-West terrorist regime controlling Iran.

So, how does this reality fit into Trump’s geopolitical agenda?

Look to Trump’s actions prior to this operation in Iran. When U.S. forces arrested and extradited Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro out of Caracas, Trump effectively took back control of the South American country’s oil assets that had been stolen from American companies. This opens Venezuelan oil to the U.S. market while effectively ending another avenue for China to access cheap oil.

In a real sense, Trump has insulated the U.S. from oil shortages while positioning it to act as the world’s leading arbiter of oil supplies. The president is returning America to the position of the world’s leading energy supplier.

Trump is even willing to end U.S. military action against Iran without regime change or reopening the Strait, using that possibility to encourage NATO members to get involved in the fight. “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

His position does not mean it won’t negatively impact the global price of oil, which in turn negatively impacts the U.S. economy. But like a physician working to cure a patient of a disease, the treatment that brings healing can often, in the immediate sense, be painful and unpleasant.

In a way, Trump is that doctor, seeking to restore the nation’s economic and geopolitical health. For far too long, America’s politicians have invested in a globalist vision of the future that inherently diminishes America’s economic, social, and geopolitical power. Too many in Washington have been content to manage America’s decline rather than prioritizing the needs of American citizens first and foremost.

But as Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told our European friends, the Trump administration is here to stop that: “We in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline.”

Trump is undoing this slow decline into an America subordinated to the interests of the globalist elites. In the immediate term, it has caused some economic pain. But in the long term, if Trump succeeds, it will be a great benefit not only to America but also the world.

Thus, Trump’s Iran plan is indeed about ending the Islamic regime’s militant terrorist threat in the region, especially its efforts to build a nuclear weapon. But it’s also aimed at countering the globalists and reestablishing the U.S. as the world’s number one geopolitical power.