The Patriot Post® · Trump's Prospects When Demo Delegates Dump Biden
“Let each citizen remember at the moment he is offering his vote that he is not making a present or a compliment to please an individual — or at least that he ought not so to do; but that he is executing one of the most solemn trusts in human society for which he is accountable to God and his country.” —Samuel Adams (1781)
Last week, in “Will the Demo Delegates Dump Biden?” I asked, “So what are the implications for Donald Trump’s electoral prospects?” I also noted, “Be careful of what you wish…”
That column outlined the latest assessment of Joe Biden’s ineptitude and lack of cognitive fitness for office, as illuminated in the findings by Special Counsel Robert Hur’s 345-page report, declining prosecution of Biden for possession of more than 300 classified documents.
As you recall, even though Hur “uncovered evidence that President Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen,” he concluded that “no criminal charges are warranted” because a jury would never convict “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
That is a remarkably damning justification and indictment of Biden’s competence. Along with the public spectacle of Biden’s incompetency issues that followed in his bumbling fumbling effort to refute the competency charges, it started a Demo panic.
If the title of last week’s column sounds familiar, it’s because 16 months ago, I asserted, “It’s Official — Biden Will (NOT) Be the Demo Nominee in 2024.” I speculated then that Biden would likely take himself out of the running after the primaries for health reasons, and then the Democrat Convention delegates would choose who will be on the general election ballot. I think there is a substantial probability that this switch is already baked into the Demos’ political calculus cake.
Of course, that would be unconventional, and astute political observers more accustomed to the conventional, including National Review’s Dan McLaughlin, assert there is no way Democrats will replace Biden. But these are unconventional times, and I note McLaughlin leaves his position open to “a drastic health event.”
However, recently, the odds on my outlying prediction have gotten better, as more of Biden’s Leftmedia talkingheads and scribes are now openly questioning his fitness for office.
Biden is furious with The New York Times for its coverage of his age and competence. Pressure mounts for him to submit to cognitive testing as part of his annual medical evaluation this month — and to release the results.
So, if Biden withdraws or is replaced by Demo delegates, what does that mean for Trump?
The answer to that question is a consideration of the other obstacles Trump faces.
There are three Trump factions among Republican voters.
The first, and I think largest, is composed of those who have an unwavering devotion to Trump. A close second would be the pragmatic voters like myself. While I think Ron DeSantis would have been a superior “fresh start” candidate, I will vote for Trump without hesitation, as I have twice before. The third Trump faction is composed of Republicans who will not vote for him, either abstaining or voting for an independent candidate.
Trump can count on his grassroots and pragmatic voters because the job he set out to do in 2017 not only remains undone, but the Left has gained a lot of ground under Biden.
Shortly after Trump entered office in 2017, I noted he was a bomb dropper: “The day he arrived in DC, he dropped a bomb on the Beltway status quo in Congress and its special interests. He dropped a bomb on the regulatory behemoths and their bureaucratic bottlenecks. He dropped a bomb on the trade and national security institutions and alliances that failed miserably over the previous eight years. And he dropped a bomb on all the pundits and mainstream media outlets.”
And we all wanted him to succeed in that mission!
Unfortunately, the carpet-bombing also ensured that socialist Democrat Party players and their fellow enemies of Liberty would mobilize their Leftmedia propagandists and Big Tech speech suppressors to ensure his defeat in 2020.
Despite only serving one term, and despite the fact that no president has ever been more relentlessly assailed by the Demos’ deep state collaborators with those aforementioned enemies of Liberty, his administration’s record of domestic and foreign policy achievements was undeniable.
It is undeniable, except for that third faction of Republicans who say they will not vote for Trump on principle. But as a matter of principle, in effect, they are enabling the Demo candidate. There is an old maxim: “The water ain’t gonna clear up until you get the pigs outa the creek.” And the best shot at getting the pigs out is Trump. I hope they will join with us pragmatists!
So, what are Trump’s prospects if Biden is not on the ballot?
Again, be careful of what you wish … because Trump’s best chance for victory is against Biden. If Demo delegates bait and switch with a more viable and charismatic candidate, and the default candidate would be Kamala Harris, all bets are off. As I have noted before, take the issue of Biden’s age and non compos mentis incompetence out of the matchup, and any polling gap advantage Trump has will quickly close.
The probability of Biden being replaced by Democrat Convention delegates ultimately hinges on his polling against Donald Trump at the end of the primaries. The Democrat primaries will conclude on 8 June, ahead of the Democrat Convention the third week of August.
Currently, though still nine months before the general election, Trump holds a narrow RCP polling lead over Biden — and has held that lead for almost five months. If Trump’s lead against Biden is trending up through the primaries, Democrats will likely pull the plug on Biden (pun intended).
Potential replacements could be Gavin Newsom or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who is now a third-party spoiler), or perhaps Demo moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on the top or bottom of the ticket (despite saying he isn’t running). Maybe that is when Michelle Obama enters stage left.
Unfortunately, even in his enfeebled state, Biden could still defeat Trump because the election is not about Biden; it is about all the fear and hatred Democrats can successfully foment against Trump, as they did in 2020 — and the fact Trump tends to throw gasoline on that fire. Demos are the party of fear and hatred, and they are experts at propagating the hysteria.
To that end, Democrats can depend on their largest voter block, women, whom Demo strategists assume are emotionally incontinent idiots and will, like blind lemmings, succumb to the hysterics and vote for the Demo nominee.
Trump has a steep uphill climb to defeat any Demo ticket, but the biggest obstacle remains rigged elections. No, not rigged voting machines as Trump errantly claimed in 2020, or even rigged vote counts in certain Demo strongholds (though I suspect there were some of those).
It will be, again, the Demos’ massive bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy — allowing tens of millions of unauthenticated votes.
That strategy originated with Anthony Fauci’s lockdowns. Democrats launched a plan to implement bulk-mail registration and balloting schemes across the nation, using the ChiCom Virus pandemic as the rationale. His “mandates” were adopted by all Demo-controlled states and, in effect, excluded any ID requirement to authenticate who was casting those ballots in order to circumvent in-person voting.
And Biden told us all about crafting that voter fraud strategy ahead of the last election.
A political gaffe is when a politician unintentionally reveals the truth about a deception. Biden has a rich history of telling unintentional truths and once declared, “I am a gaffe machine.” Of course, he also once declared he was a prostitute, and that was equally true. And we all know that Biden leads the pack of “lying dog-faced pony soldiers.”
Biden declared in 2020, “We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.” Yeah, Biden is the Gaffe Master, and despite all the contortionist efforts by his Leftmedia hacks to issue their phony fact-check disclaimers about that comment, he said it. Moreover, that was before we knew about the aforementioned bulk-mail ballot fraud strategy, which threw the outcome of that election.
In a nation of 333 million Americans, in 2020, almost 160 million (66%) of 239.2 million eligible voters cast votes. That’s the highest voter turnout rate (if one considers bulk-mail balloting “turnout”) among eligible citizens since 1900 when 73% of voters actually turned out in person to cast ballots in the race between Republican President William McKinley and Democrat challenger William Jennings Bryan. Elections were close then, too, with McKinley winning with a little more than Biden’s margin — 51.6% of that vote.
Of the votes cast in 2020, 43% (66 million ballots) were cast by mail — and a majority of those were in states where authentication of the person receiving and casting the ballot is not required. Of all those who voted in person, 66% voted for Trump versus 42% for Biden — which is to say that 58% of Biden ballots, almost 47 million votes, were cast by mail.
Though Trump received 46.9% of the vote (74,223,975) and 232 electoral votes (2,926,539 votes, or 1.8%, were for third-party candidates), the election was much closer than appearances would imply, despite the imbalance of unauthenticated Biden ballots. Biden’s seven million vote margin was mostly in California and New York (precisely why the Demos want to eliminate the Electoral College, but Biden actually won the presidency by fewer than 43,000 votes in the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
What Trump should have focused on in 2020, and seems to finally understand now, is that his defeat was the direct result of the Demos’ ballot fraud strategy — and most elements of that strategy are still intact for 2024.
That being said, however, looking back, it is notable that the Trump v. Biden 2020 poll numbers were all in the range of the final ballot numbers.
And a harbinger of the challenge Trump faces in November even if Biden remains on the ballot, was made plain by the massive midterm “red wave” fizzle into a red ripple.
Oh, and there is another ballot wild card: Keep in mind that, as Trump’s legal challenges mount, if any of those stick, particularly related to the classified document charges, which are very different than the documents case against Biden, it may also fall to the delegates at the Republican Convention to determine an alternate candidate. Notably, regarding the latest high-profile “fines” against Trump, now totaling in excess of $500 million, he is hoping to have those absurd penalties overturned on appeal.
Again, these are unconventional times…
Finally, politics aside, these are also very dangerous times, and the national security implications of a feckless American leader are already abundantly apparent.
The probability of the ChiComs invading Taiwan before January 2025 is also directly tied to Biden’s polling against Trump. If the ChiComs believe Trump will return to office, then, like Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine and Iran/Hamas attacking Israel, China will make its move knowing that Biden is “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
Brace yourself, America…
(Footnote: With rising anti-Semite student protests against Biden’s policies with Israel, some Democrats have said out loud what others are whispering, that maybe they should cancel the Democrat Convention in order to avoid the 1968 optics of violent protestors battling police. Recall that the worst of the J6 protest optics involved Trump supporters in pitched battles with Capitol and District Police.)
Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis
Pro Deo et Libertate — 1776
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