Latin American democracy is being put to the test in Brazil and Venezuela.
At stake is whether the left-wing government in either country can countenance the idea of legitimate opposition.
The day after losing Brazil’s presidential election, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro had his personal and diplomatic passports confiscated and was ordered not to leave Brazil.
Earlier, as Brazilians went to the polls Sunday to choose between Bolsonaro and leftist incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was back in her home country for the first time after almost a year in exile.
Her freedom, and life, are now at the mercy of the socialist dictatorship led by Delcy Rodriguez, who took power after America’s capture of Nicolas Maduro in January.
Venezuela has not had even the semblance of a free presidential election since 2013, following the death of Hugo Chavez, the socialist who established the present regime.
And Maduro’s victory that year — by less than 2 points — has been much questioned.
President Donald Trump has his own questions about what happened in Brazil last Sunday.
A judge who used to be Lula’s personal attorney kept polling places open an extra two hours, after the incumbent complained about a lack of adequate public transportation in cities where he expected to do well.
“It looked like another rigged election, frankly,” Trump told reporters afterward. “I didn’t take sides, but it was a terrible look for the world.”
Bolsonaro was inclined to challenge the results, calling for the election to be annulled because of judicial interference — he’s now, however, decided to pursue only a charge against Lula of improperly using his power as an incumbent to affect the vote.
That’s a complaint unsuccessful candidates often lodge against winners in Brazil’s elections: it amounts to little more than a token protest.
He might well have chosen not to pursue his argument against the judiciary for changing the rules in mid-game — as he’d earlier accused it of doing — because the judiciary holds leverage over him, in the form of two ongoing corruption investigations.
America’s recent experience of the “lawfare” waged against Trump during the Biden administration should make everyone think twice about criminal cases being lodged against the leaders of an opposition party.
Charging Machado with corruption would certainly be a convenient way for Delcy Rodriguez to remove a serious rival for the presidency.
Democracies might protest — but their own indictments of opposition leaders are only as just as their judges and prosecutors are, and from Brazil to the state of New York, where Attorney General Letitia James pressed charges against Trump, such authorities are hardly above suspicions of partisanship.
The best thing Lula can do for Brazil is make peace with his opponents — voters have not, after all, given him a blank check; they reelected him only in the wake of giving Bolsonaro’s party control of the legislature in early October.
The nation’s economic stability is also fragile, with Brazilian stocks taking their biggest fall in more than a quarter century after it was clear Lula had won.
Despite his renewed lease on office, Lula’s era is drawing to a close:
While Lula’s just turned 81, the political right is still rising in the region, as seen at home and abroad alike — in Brazil’s own legislative elections and in a dozen-plus presidential contests elsewhere in Latin America since last year.
He could go down in history as more than just another Latin American leftist of a bygone era, if he accepts his conservative opposition is legitimate.
Yet there’s little chance of that, as Lula’s attitude toward Venezuela shows.
He’s condemned the dictator Maduro’s removal from power — and what will he say if Rodriguez attempts to cling to it, despite her pledges to call elections?
If he’s content to see his opponents jailed or prevented from running for office, what are the odds he’ll object if Rodriguez bans or imprisons her opposition, too?
Rodriguez, for her part, can break the mold Chavez and Maduro imposed on her country, if she dares to: she can tolerate opposition and get the country ready for a real vote.
Losing might be painful; winding up like Maduro would be worse.
Most of Latin America is prospering under right-leaning governments.
The remaining left-wing holdouts should recognize where the future is leading.
They will soon be in opposition, just as leftists elsewhere in the region are.
Their actions toward their rivals — from Bolsonaro to Machado — will determine what place, if any, the left itself has in the Latin America that’s coming, despite the brief interruption of Lula’s last hurrah.
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