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December 16, 2025

Supply, Demand, and the War on Drugs

Has the war on drugs succeeded? Will eliminating the cargo and crew of drug boats bring victory?

“There was no ‘kill them all’ order.” That is what Navy Admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley told lawmakers this week in a classified briefing on the September 2 military strike on an alleged narco-terrorist boat in the Caribbean that killed 11 people. What set this incident apart from the roughly 20 other strikes that have reportedly killed about 80 people was the second round of fire, which killed two individuals who had survived the initial attack. The controversy centered on a Washington Post claim that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth ordered, “Kill them all.”

President Trump defended the campaign, saying, “Every boat we knock out, we save 25,000 American lives.” And while military airstrikes on drug boats are indeed new, the use of military power against narco-terrorists is not. The modern war on drugs began in June 1971 when President Richard Nixon declared drug abuse “public enemy number one” and launched a national campaign to confront it. Two years later, he created the Drug Enforcement Administration to choke off the supply entering the U.S. In the 1980s, under Presidents Reagan and Bush, the war intensified dramatically.

But has the war on drugs succeeded? And will eliminating the cargo and crew of drug boats bring victory? The evidence says something is missing.

For a president so skilled in business, President Trump should appreciate the basic law of supply and demand. After more than five decades of the War on Drugs, the risk of dying from overdose has not fallen; it has skyrocketed. In 1971, the U.S. recorded 3.3 overdose deaths per 100,000 people. By 2024, the number had risen to 24.3 per 100,000 — more than a sevenfold increase.

History and the inescapable law of supply and demand make clear that reducing supply alone does not eliminate the problem; it makes the trade more lucrative. The enterprise theory of crime holds that organized criminal groups arise only when there is a profitable demand for illegal goods or services. In other words, supply follows demand. One detailed study of darknet drug markets found that vendors cluster in high-consumption countries, not merely in producer nations. Their presence tracks where customers already are — demand pulls supply into place.

If the war on drugs is ever to succeed, its focus must move beyond the criminal suppliers to the broken users who sustain the market. Reducing demand is essential, and that responsibility extends far beyond government. Drug use is fueled by social breakdown — family instability, isolation, peer pressure, economic despair, glamorizing media, and weakened institutions — and most prominently, spiritual emptiness that leaves individuals without purpose and hope.

People without hope, purpose, a sense of identity, the freedom that comes from forgiveness, and a sense of God’s presence, which gives meaning to life, often turn to substances for escape. These social and spiritual deficits reinforce one another, meaning true recovery requires restoring relationships, addressing real-world pain, and confronting the spiritual void that leads people toward false comfort.

Failing to confront the demand side of the drug crisis will only escalate the costs — to families, communities, and the nation. The real battle is not merely on the seas but in the hearts, homes, and institutions that shape the character of our people.


Originally published here.

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