Joe Bastardi / April 18, 2013

Forecast: No End in Sight to AGW Excuses

You can’t make this stuff up. The climate change “authority” has published several articles on how global warming is resulting in an increase in Southern Hemisphere ice, while the northern ice cap is supposedly set to disappear by 2050 – even as global sea ice is back above normal. I do not believe it’s a coincidence that the articles are being released as the Northern Hemisphere fights its way out of what seems to be a never ending winter in some places. Here in the States, the plains are having the opposite weather of last spring, with record cold and snow so late in the season. Last spring was touted as an example of global warming with the record warm March here in the US, even though the *globe was .106C below normal!* Let’s take this one at a time.

You can’t make this stuff up. The climate change “authority” has published several articles on how global warming is resulting in an increase in Southern Hemispheric ice, while the northern ice cap is supposedly set to disappear by 2050 – even as global sea ice is back above normal. I do not believe it’s a coincidence that the articles are being released as the Northern Hemisphere fights its way out of what seems to be a never-ending winter in some places. Here in the States, the Plains are having the opposite weather of last spring, with record cold and snow so late in the season. Last spring was touted as an example of global warming with the record warm March here in the U.S., even though the globe was .106 degrees Celsius below normal!

Let’s examine this one at a time.

After years of stories on the shrinking of Antarctica we find in the article below that the expansion to near record levels of the ice cap is because of melting underneath, leading to fresher water near the surface that freezes quicker. Read this “Alice in Wonderland” story for yourself, from our friends at the BBC:

Melt may explain Antarctica’s sea ice expansion

I have a few questions, given the actual Antarctic ice cap levels seen here (the yellow line is this year):

• Why didn’t they explain to us before why this would happen instead of saying the sheet was melting?

• How were they measuring temperatures at all these deep levels 40, 50 or 60 years ago?

• What kind of historical (hysterical?) data do they have to compare this to?

When blaming man for all the increase in warming (a joke in itself), here is something to conside. An article by Neil Catto, titled Revisiting Temperature Reconstructions used in Climate Change Modeling, deals with temperatures in the UK. It includes had a great passage on how much CO2 in the atmosphere the UK is responsible for:

CO2 levels at present are near 390 parts per million of the atmosphere (0.039%), which includes water vapour and other GHGs. The natural carbon cycle produces 2960000m tonnes CO2. Mankind’s contribution is understood to be 33500m tonnes which equates to 1.13%. The UK contribution of 458.6m tonnes equates to 0.0155%. Therefore the total atmosphere (all GHG) is 2960•0.039%•100=758974358974m tonnes.

So, the UK’s CO2 percentage of global atmospheric gases is: 0.0000000604%.

The U.S. is responsible for 10 times the UK production, so the U.S. CO2 percentage of global atmospheric gases is .000000604%.

If you really want to have some fun with numbers, consider this: The oceans have 1,000 times the heat capacity of air. Assuming air is a homogeneous mixture, with CO2 being 1/2500th of air, it would mean that in the ocean/air system, CO2‘s contribution is 1/250000. According to the article above, man’s contribution to CO2 is 1.13 perfcent. I have seen figures as high as 5 percent, so I will use 5 percent as the baseline. Man’s contribution to the heat capacity of the entire system would be 1/5,000,000. Since the U.S. is responsible for 20 percent of that figure, our contribution to all this is 1/10,000,000.

So over this we should enact draconian laws that slow down our economy and inhibit the chance for people to prosper?

And we are expected to believe that this is causing the earth’s climate to change?

For the record, I am not anti-alternative energy. In fact, I am quite the opposite: If cooling occurs to the extent many of us think, we are going to need all the energy we can get our hands on. It takes more energy to heat cold homes and businesses than it does to cool warm ones. Life does better when it’s warmer, not colder. I am not for shutting down research and development. I am for identifying problems and having the freedom to confront them with sound, rational approaches based on reality, not excuses.

Again, for the umpteenth time (but it needs to be seen), here is the CO2/ocean/air temperature chart that reveals a disconnect (which would make sense since the rise of temperatures was part of a natural cycle, not because of CO2 increase):

Keep in mind, the rise of CO2 yearly is a bit over 1.5 parts per million, and the graphic is such that CO2 is given a disproportionately large look, so you can see what is a very minute rise compared to the fluctuation in the ocean and air temperatures. The point though is that there is a CO2 disconnect, with ocean and air temperatures moving in tandem.

Let’s go to the Northern Hemisphere

Here we are with one of the coldest March-April back-to-back periods in 50 years in the Northern Plains, and we see that the northern ice cap is now forecast by NOAA to disappear by 2050.

Amazing how these articles come out when major cold is blasting the U.S.

Why would anyone believe a NOAA study that says by 2050 the northern ice cap is gone when natural climate theory allows for the back and forth of the ice caps? In fact, the expansion of the southern ice cap is enough that global sea ice is above normal.

It’s a darn good thing we don’t have the north above normal too! In any case, check out the article, because if you are still wondering where spring is, you can take comfort in the prediction of an ice-free Arctic by 2050. (Don’t you love these forecasts that no one will be responsible for when their verification time arrives?)

Remember last March how it was offered up as “proof” of global warming? The reality is that March globally was below normal (-.106 degrees Celsius).

The excuses reach full stride when one sees that the increase in Southern Hemisphere ice at 4 perfcent per decade is outpacing the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere at 2.5 perfcent per decade.

Common sense tells you that this is cyclical; that such an imbalance will self-correct when the Atlantic warm cycle shifts. Global ice is greater than it was. Again, look at the actual ice data: Though below for a while, it’s now above!

Much like I explained in a previous article that exposed the AGW double standard, the climate change propagandists will claim they are correct either way: The decrease in ice in one place is because of warming, the increase in another also because of warming. But how is it that someone like me – one who doesn’t believe in any of these things – can forecast long term and people who can get a forecast for free actually pay me? After all, without the knowledge of what CO2 is doing, how can I have any credibility?

Again, let’s look across the pond where there’s more “down is up, up is down” excuse-making. This time people in the UK are being asked to believe that warming is causing them to be colder – even though less than 10 years ago their same forecasters were claiming snow and cold would be a thing of the past!

I am involved in UK forecasting and we had a very cold winter forecasted. In fact, an article by Matt Ridley in the Spectator Diary shows that:

At least somebody’s happy about the cold. Gary Lydiate runs one of Northumberland’s export success stories, Kilfrost, which manufactures 60 per cent of Europe’s and a big chunk of the world’s aircraft de-icing fluid, so he puts his money where his mouth is, deciding how much fluid to send to various airports each winter. Back in January, when I bumped into him in a restaurant, he was beaming: 'Joe says this cold weather’s going to last three months,’ he said. Joe is Joe Bastardi, a private weather forecaster, who does not let global warming cloud his judgment. Based on jetstreams, el Niños and ocean oscillations, Bastardi said the winter of 2011-12 would be cold only in eastern Europe, which it was, but the winter of 2012-13 would be cold in western Europe too, which it was. He’s now predicting ‘warming by mid month’ of April for the UK.

(By the way, it is warming there as the forecast said for mid-month.)

I have made this point many times. We are dealing with people who make bombastic statements. And when these bombastic statements don’t verify, the charlatans claim that what happened is still because of what they wrongly said. It would be ripe material for an SNL comedy skit, except the harm this non-factual agenda is causing to the advancement of mankind isn’t humorous. Even as I write this, I hear that Maryland is adopting a “rain tax” for objects that prevent water from flowing naturally into the ground. Actually, that’s closer to something that does have an effect on temperature – water vapor – so in a way Maryland is finding a way to tax water vapor, or a byproduct of it.

I will leave you with this report to allay your fears of the disappearance of the icecap:

Baltic Sea Sets March Ice Record… “Never Seen This Much Ice This Late In The Season”

As the cold in the U.S. reaches record levels this late in the season, do you notice what is going on? There are articles about melting ice or ice expansion because of warming, but nothing about how cold it is so late compared to last year, with the drumbeat of how warm it was so early (even though the globe was colder than normal). It’s obvious to anyone who possesses common sense that this is agenda-driven. And while the actual forecast for tomorrow, a week, a month, or years from now has some degree of doubt, there is one forecast we can be sure of: There is no end in sight to the “climate change” excuses.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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