The war in Iran was projected to last for days. It was supposed to be like Venezuela, with U.S. forces quickly toppling the Iranian regime and unleashing an upswell of public demonstrations yearning for freedom.
But warfare, like politics, is a messy affair. The war has dragged on for six months despite repeated bombings of military targets as well as threats by President Donald Trump to strike bridges and power plants and even to wipe out Iran’s entire civilization.
Up to this point, nothing has worked to bring Iran to its knees.
Lately, however, signs suggest Iran is breaking under pressure, and the determining factor is not bombings or blockades but time. That is, the lack of time. The longer this war goes on, the harder it becomes for Iran to hold its ground.
Carl von Clausewitz, Prussian soldier and author of the classic text On War, wrote that one way to defeat your opponent is to annihilate him, to take his territory, and completely subjugate him. Trump has threatened to do just about all of these, to no avail. And some reports say that our military resources are at a tipping point and that bombing Iran into submission no longer seems a viable option.
The Washington Post writes, “Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland, according to people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief.”
But if all else fails, says Clausewitz, dragging out the war can effectively achieve one’s objective. Iran’s decision to stretch out the war for a month is one thing, but six months is quite another. That may be the number one factor working in President Trump’s favor.
“By squeezing the Strait of Hormuz,” according to The Wall Street Journal, “both the U.S. and Iran expected to outlast their foe, believing time would work in their favor. Now, it looks like the trend is moving against Tehran. The U.S. naval blockade has prevented Iran from shipping any oil from the Persian Gulf since July. At the same time, despite Iranian drone and missile attacks, Washington has been able to assist Gulf Arab states in moving significant amounts of their crude through the waterway, keeping global oil prices from surging above critical levels.”
Another factor playing into America’s favor is the fact that the Iranian regime hasn’t been able to respond in any noticeable way despite its threats.
“The country’s leaders are taking a more aggressive approach as Iran faces mounting economic pressure and they worry that their grip on the Strait of Hormuz is slipping,” reports The New York Times. “The American blockade is making it nearly impossible for Iran to ship oil, its main money source. And in effect, Iran sees escalation as the primary leverage it has against the United States, analysts said, warning that the recent clashes could reignite a full-blown war.”
For now, at least, Iran hasn’t put its money where its mouth is. This doesn’t suggest that Iran shouldn’t be taken seriously or that some of their strikes haven’t damaged important U.S. and allied targets in the region. But it does indicate some reluctance on the part of the Iranian regime to get into something it can’t handle.
Duane Patterson explains at Hot Air that, in the past week, “the regime failed in their attempt to launch strikes at ships in the Strait, along with rebuilding their radar system to have eyes on commercial traffic once again, President Trump ordered a strike on Larak Island, kicking off a few days of feckless Iranian missile counterstrikes, followed by death and destruction unleashed by United States Naval forces.”
“In the Strait over the weekend, Iran tried unsuccessfully to strike two U.S. war ships,” adds Patterson. “In response, three of their tankers, full of Kharg Island oil that cannot move because of the blockade, are now part of the reef lattice at the bottom of the Strait along with the rest of the Iranian Navy. Again, Iran just lost six million barrels of oil, and the tankers, and what do they have to show for it? Nothing.”
After Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz six months ago, some experts warned of a global economic crisis, and despite higher oil and gas prices, the catastrophe hasn’t happened. There were also warnings about how leaders of other nations might take advantage of the situation with Iran, but even China is showing reluctance to take sides. All in all, it now looks like Iran is feeling the pressure.
“If Project Freedom can extend the global runway long enough for Iran’s economy to reach a breaking point, then the blockade is no longer necessary to preserve that pathway,” opines The Hill. “Sanctions, financial isolation and accumulated wartime destruction can continue to maintain the terminal tailspin while the global economy is kept alive.”
Trump and the Republicans are hoping Iran will ultimately buckle under pressure, ideally before the midterm elections. But whatever happens in November, Trump will be president for another two years, and with the clock already ticking, that may be too long for Iran to wait for a better outcome.
