By all accounts, Texas will be a closely contested state in this year’s elections, more so than in years past. This year’s Senate race has been particularly hotly contested, as state Attorney General Ken Paxton is attempting to defend the GOP’s Senate advantage against rising Democrat James Talarico.
In a state where President Donald Trump won by 14 points, Paxton and Talarico have been locked in a high-stakes battle that could determine the Senate. Donors and PACs have poured a Texas-sized sum into this race, with total spending crossing the $300 million mark and making it one of the most expensive Senate races ever.
National Review’s Jim Geraghty views this as a warning sign. He notes that GOP PACs didn’t spend “a single penny” to help Ted Cruz in 2024 “because Cruz knew how to take care of business.”
As of late, Republicans have not had momentum on their side. It’s no secret that the war in Iran has not been a popular endeavor, regardless of its merits, and that has contributed to a more expensive economy. President Trump has seen record-low approval ratings, which has effectively put a damper on many GOP candidates.
It doesn’t help that Ken Paxton is far from the ideal candidate. With a checkered past, he’s the third Texas official to be impeached, and that was brought about by a GOP-led Texas House of Representatives. He publicly separated from his wife. Paxton is not the ideal candidate for this position; nevertheless, he is the candidate, and he holds generally solid Republican positions on the issues.
Fortunately, his opponent is also a pariah.
James Talarico wants you to think he’s a straight-and-narrow Texan, a Christian man who loves faith, family, and a good barbecue. He’s going to hammer the leftist bread and butter: that the economy and the war are bad and that he will make it all better.
In reality, Talarico wants the same socialist policies as most of the current Democrat camp, and he’ll have no issue following suit if elected. More importantly, though, his social politics are wildly unpopular in a state such as Texas. This is a man known for saying that God is nonbinary, that the Bible justifies abortion, that he really loves trans kids, and that his Christian faith is informed by “Islamic mystics.” He is such an outspoken fan of LGBTQ+ indoctrination that, when asked, he would ramble about his favorite drag queens like real Texas men would about the Longhorns, Aggies, or Red Raiders.
So naturally, the Leftmedia demonize Ken Paxton as a major evil in politics who must be stopped. With all the ammunition at their disposal, it might actually work. Indicators point to Talarico winning, or at least that’s what the Democrats want you to think.
The truth is, we’ve seen this song and dance before. For years, Texas Democrats have promised that certain elections would turn the state blue, but it’s simply never happened. Wendy Davis was touted as a legitimate contender against Greg Abbott in the 2014 gubernatorial race, yet she got blown out. Beto O’Rourke lost twice in statewide elections, the gubernatorial election to Governor Abbott and then the Senate race to Ted Cruz. The GOP hasn’t lost a statewide race in Texas since the 90s.
This isn’t to say Texas will never vote blue, but we have to consider some important things.
The election is taking place in a traditionally red state, where the GOP has poured in hundreds of millions in campaign money. The Democrats’ nominee is unable to relate to the average Texan, while openly flaunting his woke identity politics. Polling numbers tend to favor the Left almost every time, and this year’s increase in potential voter turnout will most likely benefit the GOP.
Even Ken Paxton’s estranged wife has publicly said that she would vote red in this race. If Talarico can’t get the person who likely despises Paxton the most to vote for him, will any Republican or moderate vote for him? The answer is probably yes, but if I were a betting man, which I’m not (insert young person joke here), I’d say Paxton has enough cards in his deck to win this Senate race.
The Left has attempted to convince the general populace about many things, some with great success. One attempt that has repeatedly failed is the “Texas is blue” narrative. The Texas GOP hasn’t lost a statewide election in over 30 years, and I don’t see enough in the Talarico campaign to think that may change. However, as with any other election in this country, we will see when the polls close.
