“It’s just this war and that lyin’ son of a b-tch Johnson,” exclaimed Jenny’s agitated boyfriend in the 1994 classic “Forrest Gump.” The character had previously gotten violent with her and, as abusive men often do, immediately started making excuses.
I’m not even remotely insinuating that Vice President JD Vance is abusive or lying, but I couldn’t help but think of that quote after his lengthy social media post assigning blame for the GOP’s election wipeout on Tuesday.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance asserted.
In a manner of speaking. More broadly, voters signaled their fatigue with President Donald Trump because, yes, he was on the ballot.
A dutiful No. 2 can’t say that, of course, especially when everything this No. 2 says or does is under the microscope leading into the 2028 contest. But Vance didn’t shy away from the truth, and his honesty is refreshing in itself. Voters were indeed upset by the war in Iran. What the VP did not explain is why.
I’ll venture three reasons.
First, Trump was sparing in his rhetorical defense of the war, though stopping Iran from destroying American cities with a nuke should be self-explanatory. In any case, the commander-in-chief never really had public support for another war in the Middle East — a war, by the way, that isn’t anything like Iraq or Afghanistan, but that hasn’t been nearly as easy to win as Trump conveys.
Second, and much more important than speeches (or the lack thereof), Trump not only didn’t get Congress involved but also deliberately timed various assaults to toy with the 60-day authorization window. He had understandable reasons for this — primarily thin majorities of weak-kneed Republicans and stout, reflexive opposition from minority Democrats. But if voters get their news from the mainstream media, they come away thinking Trump is abusing power with no good reason.
Third, and most important to voters, the war in Iran drove up the price of oil, gas, and diesel, which put upward pressure on inflation. Without sufficient explanation and without congressional involvement, voters concluded the war wasn’t worth the cost to them.
After speaking to an unnamed pollster friend to determine voters’ thinking, Vance listed the four things voters said:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats.
Still, it’s notable that voters said “end the war,” not “the war never should have been fought.” Perhaps that means Trump’s biggest mistake has been not waging all-out war until it’s won instead of the on-again-off-again dealmaking he’s pursued — much of it at Vance’s behest. Note that Vance didn’t say “win the war,” either.
Another intriguing item on Vance’s list is the fourth item: Israel. The president and his administration are indeed looking into reducing foreign aid to Israel, which an increasing number of Americans view with at least a raised eyebrow. That $4 billion a year is a drop in the bucket of the federal budget, and most of it comes right back into the American economy via Israeli purchases of our military equipment and other things. But the media ignores those details, and many voters miss the nuance.
Worse, the antisemitic crowd opposes money for Israel because they oppose the existence of Israel. I don’t think that’s what Vance stands for, but he’s been less than staunch in rebuking friends who do.
Vance listed “Focus on cost of living/inflation” as the second reason in his list of four, but he otherwise didn’t talk about it — or fuel prices — at all. Why pile on, I guess?
The problem is that the cost of living is exactly why Trump lost. The war in Iran contributed, but it wasn’t the reason. Also, Vance’s post never mentions the word “tariff” — because he’s a populist protectionist and doesn’t think they’re a problem. But two-thirds of voters opposed tariffs because they raise prices at a time when prices are already too high.
In exit polls, about 90% of voters said government corruption factored into their vote, but Vance didn’t address that either. And he’s the leader of Trump’s anti-fraud task force, for Pete’s sake.
Whether Vance runs for president in 2028 is a hot topic of speculation these days. He’s both floating some trial balloons and laying the groundwork for his decision, especially with lengthy commentary like the post on Iran.
That said, let’s conclude by looking at a comment from his post alongside something Trump said after the election blowout.
“If you’d like to argue [the war] was worth it,” Vance said, “that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
In a sense, Trump obliged. “If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again because long-term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.” He’s right about that, but he was wrong about this: “I would have done nothing different.”
Ultimately, the problem wasn’t that Trump attacked Iran. It’s the how that contributed to the GOP defeat.
Exit question: How much longer will Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have his job atop the Pentagon? Even Trump is asking that one.
