A favorite narrative for Joe Biden, Democrats, and the Leftmedia is that crime is falling on his watch. It’s a BIG lie via statistical manipulation. Crime researcher John Lott explains why it’s a lie.

First, he points to polling showing that the vast majority of Americans, including a majority of Democrats, think crime is rising. “Americans aren’t mistaken,” he says. The rub is that “many victims aren’t reporting crimes to the police.”

The U.S. has two measures of crime. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting program counts the number of crimes reported to police every year. The Bureau of Justice Statistics, in its National Crime Victimization Survey, asks some 240,000 people a year whether they have been victims of a crime. The two measures have diverged since 2020: The FBI has been reporting less crime, while more people say they have been victims.

The divergence is due to several reasons. In 2022, 31% of police departments nationwide, including Los Angeles and New York, didn’t report crime data to the FBI. In addition, in cities from Baltimore to Nashville, Tenn., the FBI is undercounting crimes those jurisdictions reported.

Another reason crimes reported to the police are falling is that arrest rates are plummeting. If victims don’t believe criminals will be caught and punished, they won’t bother reporting them. According to the FBI, if you take the five years preceding Covid-19 (2015-19) and compare them with 2022, the percentage of violent crimes in all cities resulting in an arrest fell from 44% to 35%. Among cities with more than one million people (where violent crime disproportionately occurs), arrest rates over the same period plunged from 44% to 20%.

Arrests for property crimes dived even more sharply. FBI data show that in 2022, 12% of reported property crimes in all cities resulted in an arrest. In cities of more than one million people, only 4.5% of reported property crimes in 2022 resulted in an arrest.

Based on the National Crime Victimization Survey, only 42% of violent crimes, such as robberies or aggravated assaults, and 32% of property crimes, such as burglary or arson, were reported in 2022. While the Justice Department doesn’t track the number of prosecutions, the percentage of arrests that resulted in a prosecution appears to have fallen that year as well.

In large cities, the arrest rate in 2022 compared with the 2015-19 average fell 38% for murders, 50% for rapes, 55% for aggravated assault and 58% for robberies.

While the rate of reported violent crime fell 2.1% between 2021 and 2022, the National Crime Victimization Survey shows that total violent crime — reported and nonreported — rose from 16.5 incidents to 23.5 per 1,000 people. Nonreported violent crime in 2022 exceeded the 2015-19 average by more than 17%.

In short, his argument is this: People don’t report crime when criminals aren’t even arrested, much less punished. Why bother? For the Left to then insist that “crime is down” is a lie and an insult.

Lott concludes:

It isn’t surprising that affluent people can insulate themselves from spikes in crime — but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Americans aren’t simply imagining that our streets have become more dangerous.

Wall Street Journal subscribers can read the whole thing here.