The United States is heading toward a demographic cliff, and most policymakers still refuse to acknowledge it. In 2024, the United States recorded a fertility rate of roughly 1.6 births per woman — far below the 2.1 replacement rate required to sustain a stable population. When birth rates collapse, economies weaken, social systems strain, and national confidence erodes.

No modern country has reversed population decline without first enduring serious consequences.

Population decline directly affects labor supply, economic growth, and the sustainability of entitlement programs. Fewer children today means fewer workers tomorrow, fewer taxpayers supporting Social Security and Medicare, and a growing dependency ratio that places enormous pressure on younger generations.

Japan provides the clearest example. Decades of declining birth rates have left the country with an aging population, stagnant growth, and a shrinking workforce that automation alone cannot fully replace. Western Europe and Canada are now following the same trajectory.

In the United States, this reality has been partially obscured by mass immigration, particularly illegal immigration. That temporary masking effect has allowed leaders to avoid confronting the deeper issue: Americans are not having enough children.

Enforcing immigration law matters, and illegal immigration should not be treated as a substitute for family formation. A nation that relies on unlawful population growth to offset collapsing birth rates is not solving a problem — it is postponing it.

Returning to the Biden-era approach, when the administration imposed few meaningful restrictions on illegal immigration, would once again produce an artificially inflated economy — one that ultimately collapses under its own weight. Housing costs, in particular, have risen sharply, driven in part by increased demand resulting from large-scale illegal immigration.

There are only two long-term paths forward. The first is sustained population growth through higher birth rates. The second is large-scale legal immigration. Legal immigration can be beneficial and has historically strengthened the United States, but it is not a simple or sufficient replacement for a stable domestic birth rate.

Immigration systems require infrastructure, integration, enforcement, and public trust. When used as a demographic crutch rather than a targeted policy tool, immigration becomes politically volatile and socially destabilizing.

Encouraging family formation is the more plausible and culturally cohesive solution. Achieving that goal requires removing the economic barriers that make starting a family feel financially reckless for young Americans.

Housing costs have skyrocketed. Childcare expenses rival college tuition in many states. Healthcare costs associated with pregnancy and early childhood continue to rise. At the same time, cultural institutions increasingly frame parenthood as a burden rather than a public good.

This is where pro-family policy becomes more than rhetoric. Policies that expand child tax credits, reduce regulatory burdens on housing construction, support parental leave without punishing small businesses, and recognize the economic value of caregiving are not giveaways. They are investments in national stability. Countries that fail to make these investments pay the price in slower growth, weaker communities, and rising intergenerational tension.

In general, under the Trump administration, the country is moving in the right direction on several foundational issues. President Donald Trump supports stronger child tax credits and a more effective education policy that eases financial pressure on working families and young Americans. Most importantly, his administration promotes an American culture that values family formation and stability, rather than treating families as an economic or social burden.

The United States is not doomed to fail, but if a Democrat administration returns to power — which is very possible — Trump’s progress will stall, and birth rates will continue to decline.