Who will win the Los Angeles mayoral race? Will Democrat Karen Bass successfully win reelection come November? Or will socialist city council member Nithya Raman win the day and push LA even deeper into the leftist sanitarium it has become? Or will former reality TV personality Spencer Pratt do the near-unthinkable and win as a Republican in the City of Angels?

Polling as of late March gave Bass a comfortable 14-point lead over Pratt, with Raman not far behind. Bass also has the largest fundraising advantage, having pulled in some $3.7 million.

Normally, one would expect Bass’s reelection bid to be a cakewalk for a Democrat incumbent in deep-blue California, and indeed in Los Angeles, which last had a Republican mayor in 2001.

But frustration with the city’s failing status quo has mounted, with homelessness and drug problems getting worse, the cost of living rising, a growing exodus of people moving out, and last year’s Pacific Palisades wildfire highlighting the city leadership’s — particularly Mayor Bass’s — abject incompetence.

Indeed, the fire was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back for Pratt. After losing his home, he decided he could no longer sit on the sidelines and accept this level of malevolent incompetence from city leadership. So, the man who played a villain on TV decided it was time to step up and be a real-life hero for the city he grew up in and loves.

Pratt is not your run-of-the-mill Republican either. Indeed, he’s no politician. But he is a man who cares about his community and instinctively understands social media and how to play to an audience.

Widely panned when he jumped into the race, mostly due to his entertainment career, Pratt has risen to near the top of the field. Primarily, that’s because he has honestly and genuinely presented himself as himself. He’s not a polished politician, but he is a man who cares enough to dig down into the issues and know what he’s talking about.

For example, in one video he posted to social media, he blasts Bass: “Everyone in [California’s] government is milking taxpayers through these shady NGOs and nowhere is it more pervasive than Karen [Bass’s] LA, where the homeless organizations [are] raking in cash, but the problem continues to fester. Ever wonder why we pour billions of our taxpayer dollars into homelessness, and yet you only see more filth and drug addicts on the streets? Because it’s all a scam! They’re stealing your money. When I’m mayor, this mafia racket stops.”

This reality was eye-opening during a debate a week ago among these top three candidates: Bass, Pratt, and Raman. Pratt repeatedly exposed both Bass and Raman as incompetent ideologues who have enriched themselves and their elite supporters at the expense of LA residents.

It was clear after the debate that Pratt had come out as the hands-down winner, with an NBC-4 Los Angeles online poll showing 87% of viewers saw him as the winner. Indeed, some are speculating that Pratt’s trouncing of Bass was the impetus behind her decision to back out of a second debate, although Pratt also declined the invitation due to a scheduling conflict.

Pratt’s debate performance, combined with his direct and skilled social media campaign, appears to have Bass a bit worried. On top of this, 40% of voters remain undecided, a clear opportunity for Pratt.

On the other hand, we’re talking about Los Angeles here. All over the Golden State, we’ve seen seemingly hopeful opportunities for Republicans amount to little more than a mirage come Election Day.

Furthermore, thanks to California’s election system, even if Pratt were to beat Bass and end up at the top of the field, the possibility of doing so with over 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff is highly unlikely. And given that scenario, the edge would go to Bass, as the divided Democrat vote would coalesce around her. (The same issue faces both Republican gubernatorial candidates.)

That both the gubernatorial and LA mayoral races are even close in deep-blue California is an indictment of Democrat leadership and yet another reason Republicans can use to appeal for support in the coming midterms.