Trump’s Middle East Chess Match
While the Leftmedia thinks in terms of checkers, the president is working various angles on Iran, including with Saudi Arabia, and he’s thinking several moves ahead.
We bombed Iran and called it a win. Then we launched a hail of strikes and settled on a ceasefire. We resumed strikes and paused them again. If your head is spinning from the news on Iran, you’re not alone. But don’t tune out just yet.
It’s no secret that President Donald Trump doesn’t want full-blown war with Iran. He campaigned against war in all three presidential bids, and he was among the earliest critics of the war in Iraq. Trump wants deals, not wars.
He launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran in February when it became clear that he needed to act more thoroughly than he had in last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer. Taking out Iran’s nuclear program was the main objective, but possible regime change would have been a bonus. Presently, Trump seems caught between plummeting poll numbers amidst rising oil and gas prices and his desire to be victorious on the U.S. national security objective regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
Not that long ago, an exasperated President Trump said he was done trying to negotiate with the Iranians. “I don’t want to negotiate now,” he said mid-month. “They want to make a deal, but every time they make a deal, they break it.”
On Thursday, he warned, “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before.”
Yet on Friday, he said, “There’s a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are, and we can even make it a heavier dose, and it’s knocking out everything they have. Or there’s a smarter strategy that you make a deal. And they want to make a deal.”
So, here we are, noting the weekend’s pause in attacks that had interrupted the ceasefire for most of July. Trump is “giving talks some space,” said UN Ambassador Mike Waltz. “He’s giving it a little bit of room.”
Tomorrow, the Associated Press reports, “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to travel to the United States and meet with Trump in Washington.” Netanyahu “fully” backs Trump’s efforts, saying, “If he can do so without returning to intense military fighting, that’s fine. Why not?”
One reason for the pause could be our diminishing stockpile of ordnance. There have been rumblings for some time now about running low on missiles, bombs, and Patriot interceptors. Sources cite General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, though he won’t confirm it for obvious reasons. Indeed, such warnings could certainly be a feint for Iranian (and Chinese) consumption.
Trump himself argued the other side: “We have far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need.” Which is it? our adversaries are wondering.
The president has at least two objectives now — ending Iran’s nuclear program, of course, but also fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The latter matters much more for the 2026 midterms because of its impact on energy prices. And the former simply isn’t going to happen through negotiations so long as the present regime rules Tehran. Especially not when Iran’s remaining nuclear capability is buried in Pickaxe Mountain, deeper than Fordow, which had already severely tested our ability to destroy it.
“Mr. Trump’s problem is the regime. It has always been the regime,” writes columnist Matthew Continetti. “If he wants to win this war, Mr. Trump must deliver crippling blows to Iran’s government.”
What about Saudi Arabia? The Arab nation is the most important regional Islamic counterweight to Iran, and Trump has courted the Saudis with a nuclear deal of their own — a deal initially proposed under Joe Biden’s administration. Trump later made it contingent on Saudi Arabia signing onto the Abraham Accords with Israel, which could derail the deal. Congressional review could do the same.
According to The Washington Post, “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spoken openly about working to develop nuclear weapons if Iran is not stopped from getting them.” The Iranians don’t want that, which is part of Trump’s chess match in the broader Middle East. Regarding the deal, the Post adds, “The aim is to allow Saudi Arabia to achieve its goal of developing a nuclear power economy without giving the kingdom access to tools it could use to develop a nuclear weapon.”
Of course, Iran insists its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, too, which makes the Saudi deal all the more intriguing. Trump is clearly playing the rivals off of each other, and I’m guessing that’s a topic in tomorrow’s meeting with Netanyahu.
In short, Trump is doing the whole rope-a-dope negotiating thing again, and Leftmedia pontificators seem utterly mystified. He has numerous objectives, and he is pursuing all of them. He may succeed partially or completely, and at present the chessboard doesn’t look great, but one thing is certain: Donald Trump doesn’t play checkers.
