In a move that was unexpected to the Untied States, Russia started withdrawing most of its military forces from the Syrian civil war Tuesday. The orders came after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad talked by phone and just as some of the major players in the civil war come to the table for peace talks.

The question that remains is: What is Putin trying to do?

Syrian rebels wonder if Putin somehow came around to their side, pushing for a cessation of hostilities after a falling out with Assad. A spokesman for the groups fighting Assad, Salem al-Meslet, cautiously told The Wall Street Journal, “It will be important if this decision is taken. It will be more important if Putin decides to stand beside the Syrian people, not beside the dictator.” This is a position Putin’s spokesman denies, however.

When Putin’s army first touched ground in Syria in September, some naïvely hoped that it was there to better beat up the Islamic State, to do the job the Obama administration didn’t want to do. As should have been apparent to everyone all along, however, Putin wanted his man Assad to enter peace talks with a position of strength. In the month’s Russia’s military has been in the country, it has beaten back Syrian rebels while Islamic State forces remain relatively untouched. Assad can come to the table with the upper hand, and Putin too arrives in a position of strength. He left the fight, so the West is pressured to make concessions, to keep Assad in power.

Putin’s goal all along was to gain diplomatic leverage in the Middle East, shutting out U.S. involvement. Thanks to the Obama administration’s foolish approach to international policy, Putin is well on his way to accomplishing his true goal.