Number of ‘Ferguson Effect’ Skeptics Is Shrinking
One previously skeptical criminologist calls it a “leading hypothesis.”
Homicide rates in some metropolitan areas is on the upswing, and in some cities it’s up significantly. This has prompted numerous unlikely sources to publicly split from the mainstream narrative on possible reasons, including FBI Director James Comey, who last week reiterated his belief that the Ferguson Effect is a potential culprit. Now, criminologist Richard Rosenfeld is wondering the same thing.
According to The Guardian, “Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a ‘Ferguson effect,’ a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. Now, the St Louis criminologist says, a deeper analysis of the increase in homicides in 2015 has convinced him that ‘some version’ of the Ferguson effect may be real.”
The Guardian continues, “Looking at data from 56 large cities across the country, Rosenfeld found a 17% increase in homicide in 2015. Much of that increase came from only 10 cities, which saw an average 33% increase in homicide. ‘These aren’t flukes or blips, this is a real increase,’ he said. ‘It was worrisome. We need to figure out why it happened.’ All 10 cities that saw sudden increases in homicide had large African American populations, he said. While it’s not clear what drove the increases, he said, he believes there is some connection between high-profile protests over police killings of unarmed black men, a further breakdown in black citizens’ trust of the police, and an increase in community violence. ‘The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,’ Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his ‘leading hypothesis.’”
Of course, it’s been our long-held, unequivocal belief that the Ferguson Effect is at least partially behind the nationwide increase in crime. And as we reported in January, “The New York Times referred to Comey’s remarks as ‘incendiary’ and insisted there is ‘no data suggesting’ the Ferguson effect is real.” On the contrary, new data only affirms that the Ferguson Effect is more than just a theory.
