In the wake of the unprecedented leak of the upcoming Supreme Court decision on abortion — one that appears to overturn Roe v. Wade — John Lott ponders the major changes to society brought by Roe that will not likely be undone by its overturning.

With the news that the U.S. Supreme Court will likely overturn Roe v. Wade, commentary has largely concentrated on the moral issues, women’s desires to not bear a child to term, and the soundness of the original court decision. However, the current discussion also provides a chance to evaluate how liberalizing abortion rules from 1969 to 1973 ignited profound long-term social changes in America and whether the court’s decision will reverse those changes.

After noting that “legal abortions didn’t start with Roe, he continues:

Nevertheless, Roe substantially increased abortions, more than doubling the rate per live birth in the five years from 1972 to 1977. But many other changes occurred at the same time, among them: a sharp increase in premarital sex; a sharp rise in out-of-wedlock births; a drop in the number of children placed for adoption; and a decline in marriages that occur after the woman is pregnant. …

With abortion seen as a backup, women and men became less careful in using contraceptives and more likely to have premarital sex.

There were more unplanned pregnancies. But legal abortion did not mean every unplanned pregnancy led to an abortion.

And the number of out-of-wedlock births skyrocketed from around 5% before Roe to 16% (and 62% among blacks) two decades later. It’s even higher today. Far fewer such pregnancies lead to marriage later, either. That’s because it gave men an out to "wash their hands of the affair altogether.”

What has happened to these babies of reluctant fathers? The mothers often raise the children on their own. Even as abortion has led to more out-of-wedlock births, it has dramatically reduced adoptions of children born in America by two-parent families.

Before Roe, when abortion was much more difficult, women who would have chosen an abortion but could not get one turned to adoption as their backup. After Roe, women who turned down an abortion also were the type who wanted to keep the child.

But all these changes — rising out-of-wedlock births, plummeting adoption rates, and the end of shotgun marriages — meant more single-parent families.

Lott points out something we also have in the past: social problems galore, from “increased difficulties at school to committing more crime.” Minorities are often the worst off.

He concludes:

Unfortunately, Roe destroyed many social institutions, such as the social pressures for shotgun marriages, and they are unlikely to return. Nor will premarital sex likely be as rare as it was before Roe.

Liberalized abortion undoubtedly has made life easier for many, but like sex itself sometimes, it has had many unintended consequences.

Read the whole thing here.