Insight

“Only oppression should fear the full exercise of freedom.” —Jose Marti y Perez (1853-1895)

For the Record

“I think there’s a very high likelihood of recession. When we’ve been in this kind of situation before, recession has essentially always followed when inflation has been high and unemployment has been low. Soft landings represent a kind of triumph of hope over experience. I think we’re very unlikely to see one.” —former Obama economic advisor Larry Summers

“I think there’s also a greater risk of stagflation and this episode being with us for some number of years than the market is currently discounting.” —Larry Summers

Newspeak

“What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data — including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year — even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter — indicates a recession.” —The White House (“This redefining of ‘recession’ comes as a report on GDP is expected Thursday. … It’s highly possible that in redefining the word, the White House is under the impression that a negative GDP report for the second quarter will be dropping Thursday, following a first quarter negative report.” —Libby Emmons)

“We’re likely to see some slowing of job creation. I don’t think that that’s a recession. A recession is broad-based weakness in the economy. We’re not seeing that now.” —Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste

“Here’s one bold move that Biden is unlikely to make, despite the real dent it would put in the emission of heat-trapping carbon dioxide that is causing such havoc with the weather: Stop the fall in gasoline prices. As any economist will tell him, the most efficient way to reduce fossil fuel consumption is to raise its price relative to alternatives, encouraging people and businesses to switch to cleaner sources and use less energy altogether. … Russia’s invasion of Ukraine already did the trick — sending the average retail price of gasoline above $5 a gallon in early June. All Biden must do is keep it from falling back. The climate would thank him.” —Bloomberg Opinion columnist Eduardo Porter

The BIG Lies

“We’re gonna stand up against a law that says ‘don’t say gay,’ basically restricting kindergarten through third-grade teachers in Florida to be able to love openly and teach what they believe is important for people to understand.” —Vice President Kamala Harris

“When you talk about the things that can prevent [COVID] infection, masking is clearly quite capable of doing that.” —National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci

And Last…

“We’re all gonna feel dumb when we find out AOC did get handcuffed by the same invisible guy Biden keeps shaking hands with.” —Jimmy Failla