Are Republicans on the verge of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? If current polling is any indication, that may be the case come November — at least for the Senate.

Topping the list of Republicans’ problematic candidates is Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is running in Pennsylvania to replace the retiring GOP stalwart Pat Toomey. Republicans find themselves with the lackluster Oz thanks in large part to his having received Donald Trump’s endorsement, which was enough to help Oz squeak out a razor-thin primary victory over the much more reliably conservative and compelling David McCormick.

Oz currently finds himself trailing in the polls by double digits to one of the weakest candidates Democrats could have picked, John Fetterman, a hoody-wearing leftist radical whose recent stroke has left him struggling to string together coherent sentences. (Of course, incoherency is standard fare for Democrat candidates nowadays). But what may be the biggest factor in Oz being down in the polls is what Fetterman has hit him hardest on — essentially being a carpetbagger. “He’s a New Jersey resident. He doesn’t live here,” Fetterman noted. “He’s not about us. He doesn’t care about us.”

Oz’s limited connections to Pennsylvania (he attended school in the state) may not be the primary issue for Republicans, other than it raises the specter of him simply being an opportunist. Instead, what Republican voters find problematic are the doctor’s positions on several significant long-held Republican issues, such as abortion and the Second Amendment, which put him decidedly on the left side of the aisle. While Oz accurately paints Fetterman as a radical leftist, that doesn’t make Oz a conservative. This, unfortunately, is endangering a GOP-held Senate seat that Republicans need to keep.

Then there’s Georgia. Although not as bad as the situation currently looks in Pennsylvania, the Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker is trailing in the polls behind Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, who Trump helped elect in January 2021. The race is close, within the margin of error, though what may be helping Walker is that Republican Governor Brian Kemp is polling well against Stacey Abrams. This is a must-flip seat for Republicans in order to win control of the Senate.

In New Hampshire, recent polling has GOP candidate Don Bolduc closely trailing Democrat incumbent Maggie Hassan. With Joe Biden holding a very low approval rating in the Granite State, Republicans see an outside opportunity to flip the seat.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson finds himself in a tight race in Wisconsin. Recent polling has him lagging behind his challenger, though, Johnson has a history of pulling out victories late in a state that’s notoriously difficult to poll.

What’s worrying to the party is that the expected big red wave, thanks to Biden’s abysmal performance and approval ratings, has yet to materialize. Republicans had excellent opportunities in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado to seriously challenge Democrats, but ended up with Trump-endorsed candidates that are having trouble moving the needle into the probable win column.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell drew a lot of heat for his own comments about Republican prospects. “I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” he said Thursday. “Senate races are just different, they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.” Why McConnell, the least popular politician in the country, thought it was a good idea to throw such encouragement to the Democrats is anyone’s guess, but he’s not wrong on the substance. Perhaps he remembers Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle, and Christine O'Donnell a little too well. Even if that’s true, though, McConnell’s job is, as Mollie Hemingway put it, “taking every opportunity to sing their praises and push a unifying and expansive message nationally.”

For his part, Donald Trump asked, “Why do Republicans Senators allow a broken down hack politician, Mitch McConnell, to openly disparage hard working Republican candidates for the United States Senate?” Well, maybe because J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in particular won their primaries by trashing McConnell. Now they need his money and his help.

The midterm election is still over two months away, and much can change in that time. But as things stand today, Republicans gaining control of Senate seems to be more of a toss-up than an inevitability. Especially if they don’t stop the circular firing squad and start uniting around beating Democrats.

(Updated)