By Mike McGinn
Humans are generally bad at processing large numbers, doing exact math quickly, and grasping intuitive statistics and probability because our brains have evolved to compare physical quantities and rely on mental shortcuts rather than calculate abstract digits or use mathematical logic. We, by nature, tend to think more emotionally than rationally.
I experienced a good example of this many years ago while I was working in the Washington, DC, area. Back then, the State of Virginia crossed a “milestone.” For the first time in Old Dominion history, it had more than 1,000 annual traffic fatalities. There were, of course, dozens of news articles and blog posts lamenting this tragedy. State officials were viciously lambasted for allowing such a tragedy to occur and for not doing more to improve things.
On the surface, things seemed grim. More than 1,000 fatalities were, after all, a lot to stomach. But if you stepped back and analyzed the data from a proper perspective — i.e., deaths per licensed driver, deaths per registered vehicle, deaths per vehicle miles driven, etc. — you found that things had been steadily improving over the years. Had the death rates experienced a decade or two earlier still been occurring, there would have been far more than 1,000 fatalities that year.
Sadly, what everyone focused on back then was the “1,000 annual traffic fatalities” number. From an emotional standpoint, it just sounded bad, and everyone ran on their emotions. We’re seeing a similar situation today concerning the price of crude oil. The emotional number is “$100 per barrel.”
Crude oil prices have understandably spiked recently. We are, after all, at war with Iran, a nation that has significant control over the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices briefly spiked to just over $100/barrel after Operation Epic Fury. They have crept back up to similar levels in recent weeks as the war drags on with no apparent resolution in sight.
On the surface, it seems grim — and the Left is wasting no time capitalizing on the situation. As the midterm elections loom, President Donald Trump is being lambasted concerning the price of crude oil. What the Left will not remind you of is that the price of crude oil was above $100/barrel for about five months during the Biden administration and for about 17 months total during the Obama administration. Nor will they talk to you about the effect of inflation.
When crude oil was around $115/barrel in the summer of 2022 under Joe Biden, adjusting that price for inflation today would put it at $130/barrel. When crude oil spiked to around $110/barrel in the spring of 2011 under Barack Obama, adjusting that price for inflation today would put it at $163/barrel. Would you be screaming about $130 or $163/barrel oil?
As can be seen in the graph below, if you adjust a $100/barrel price today for inflation, that same barrel would have cost just $63/barrel when Obama took office in 2009. Obama had inflation-adjusted prices well above $100/barrel oil for over five and half years of his eight-year term. When compared with $163/barrel Obama oil and $130/barrel Biden oil, it is amazing that the price of crude oil has remained at or below $100/barrel despite our war with Iran.
Keep that fact in mind when you go to the polls during the midterms this November.
(Image source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Mike McGinn is a retired U.S. Marine Corps F/A-18 pilot, a conservative Christian, and a soldier in the battle for what is good, honorable, and true.
