If Joe Biden is pushed out of the presidential race by elite Democrats, the most obvious replacement is Kamala Harris. Numerous pundits have noted that the vice president is already running ahead of Biden against Donald Trump — even before she’s had the chance to make her case.

Though I’m not in the predictions racket, I’ve been around long enough to know that D.C. experts have no idea how the electorate is going to react to a candidate. History is strewn with sure things and can’t-miss prospects. Many voters are reliable partisans. Many others are driven by intuition and emotion, not the kind of hard rationalism experts tend to assign them.

Which is to say, it’s a mistake to assume Harris’ popularity is destined to increase after she makes her case to voters. In truth, the reverse is just as likely to happen.

In 2011, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s favorability numbers hit a historic high of 66%, and remained over 50% until the 2016 presidential campaign began in earnest. Those are better than Harris’ numbers today. By September 2018, Clinton was at 36%. Even among Democrats, Clinton’s favorability dropped 10 points from the start of the campaign until the election.

What happens when Harris faces a large-scale highly funded opposition campaign that launches relentless daily attacks on her? Most voters don’t know much about Harris’ record. Trump’s negatives, on the other hand, are already baked into the polls. What is Harris going to say about the former president that Biden hasn’t? Once you accuse your opponent of being Hitler, there really isn’t much space to ratchet up the rhetoric.

Besides, what will Harris’ case for the presidency be? Won’t she be compelled to run on Biden’s record? Sure, a change would shift the coverage away from Biden’s fragility. But before the media begins writing revisionist histories about the past four years, let’s not forget the administration’s policies were unpopular before everyone acknowledged the president’s declining mental state. Biden was lagging behind Trump on issues that matter most to voters before the debate.

And the most important noneconomic issue for voters, according to Gallup, is immigration. The one memorable task given to Harris by Biden was to stem the U.S.-Mexico border crisis. She was appointed for the job in March of 2021. By May of 2022, the United States had the highest monthly number of encounters at the border, more than 241,000. By December 2023, that number was more than 250,000. In a 2019 appearance on “The View,” candidate Harris argued that illegal immigration should be a “civil enforcement issue,” not a criminal one. So perhaps she was just keeping her promise.

One supposes Harris could try to distance herself from Biden. Recall, though, that the driving reason Biden took the weak 2020 Democratic primary field was the perception of his moderation and decency. How will a hard-left presidential candidate, who didn’t even finish her first term in the Senate, help Democrats in competitive states?

An outside Democrat could be more effective in recalibrating the debate. Names like Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro and Gavin Newsom are making the rounds. But are Democrats really going to push out not only the president but the first black/South Asian/woman vice president in history? Seems risky.

Sure, Barack Obama proved that one can win the presidency without any real-world accomplishments. Harris, though, has never shown the political instincts that should convince anyone she’s going to be an effective national candidate. Indeed, there’s little evidence that independents or Democrats like Harris, at all. Recall that she ran a primary campaign that deteriorated into a squabbling mess and garnered little support from her own party. Even as veep, she has trouble running an office.

A candidate who believes pro-Hamas protesters are “showing exactly what the human emotion should be” or spreads the Jussie Smollett hoax — a “modern-day lynching” — even after an investigation has been opened probably has a rich history of saying stupid things.

Then again, as I said, who knows. Maybe voters will love her confusing tautologies and grating personality.

In many ways, after all, Harris is already running for the presidency. There’s a not-small chance that Biden would be unable to finish a second term, either because he’s mentally unable, physically incapacitated or worse. And every Democrat, the entire White House press corps and anyone paying attention already knew this before the president’s disastrous debate performance. Even if Biden stays in the race, he’s not getting sharper or less brittle. Benjamin Button is a fictional character. We also know Americans will sometimes vote for barely coherent candidates.

So, perhaps, in the long run, being the running mate is the best strategy for Harris to become the president.

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