Nevada has fewer registered Democrats today than in 2016. That’s one reason Nevada could be a red state within a decade.

Nevada Republicans currently have a voter registration edge of more than 7,000 out of 2 million registered voters. That may not sound like much, but it’s their largest voter registration lead since 2006. Nevada has around 571,000 registered Republicans and a bit under 564,000 Democrats.

This is a dramatic reversal. In the 2016 general election, Democrats had a voter registration advantage of nearly 89,000. Hillary Clinton won the state by around 27,000 votes. In 2020, Democrats had a similarly sized edge. Former President Joe Biden won the state by under 34,000 votes.

But the Biden presidency turned into a recruiting boon for Nevada Republicans. By November 2022, Democrats’ voter registration edge had fallen to around 52,000. Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, defeated the Democratic incumbent, former Gov. Steve Sisolak, by less than 16,000 votes.

By November 2024, Democrats’ voter registration edge in Nevada had dropped to under 10,000. President Donald Trump won the state by 46,000 votes, a victory of 3 percentage points.

One of the biggest reasons for this is how Trump — aided by Biden’s inflation-producing policies — revamped the Republican coalition. Trump attracted more minority and younger voters, while college-educated voters moved left. Nevada might be the state where that trade is the most advantageous. Thirty percent of Nevadans are Hispanic and racial minorities comprise a majority of the state’s population. Compared with other states, Nevada has relatively few college graduates.

It’s unclear whether this coalition will hold together or show up in the midterms. College graduates tend to be more consistent voters.

Nevada Republicans received an unwitting assist from leftist donors, too. In 2018, Nevada voters approved an automatic voter registration initiative. Leftist groups donated more than $9 million to promote the measure. The theory was that automatically registering people at the DMV would ensure a steady stream of new Democratic voters.

It didn’t happen. In 2018, there were almost 600,000 registered Democrats, which gave them a 4.8 percentage point advantage. Today, there are around 564,000 Democrats and Republicans have a 0.35 percentage point edge.

Before 2018, Nevada Democrats significantly outperformed Republicans in registering voters. The Reid machine provided money and organization that Republicans couldn’t match. But DMV registration leveled the playing field. Plus, most people at the DMV aren’t thinking about voting. Many get registered as nonpartisan by default. This makes it harder for Democrats to identify which voters to turn out.

This shift has moved Nevada from a lean blue state to a pure toss-up. Will the trend continue?

Here are two reasons it might. The first is Californians. Yes, you read that correctly. In 2024, around 40% of those moving to Nevada came from the Golden State. But those departing Californians are disproportionately Republican. Paradoxically, former Californians may keep Nevada from copying California’s terrible policies.

The other is Turning Point Action, setting up shop in Nevada. For decades, the right hasn’t had a counter to the turnout machine of Culinary Local 226. If donors buy into the long-term vision, Turning Point’s efforts could turn those low-propensity Republican voters into Republican votes.

The stakes are high. If this trend continues, Republicans could flip Nevada’s two Democrat-held U.S. Senate seats in 2028 and 2030. After the census shakes up the Electoral College, Nevada’s results could determine who wins the presidency in 2032.

Events are unpredictable, and Democrats are pumping money into voter registration. That should help them.

But a decade ago, Nevada looked like it would soon be a permanently blue state. It has swung dramatically to the right, and there are reasons to believe that trend will continue.

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