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Joe Bastardi / Jan. 31, 2013

Widespread Dryness: Been There, Done That, Naturally

I have been on national television several times over the past six years saying we would go into a pattern similar to the 1950s with drought and heat centered over the nations midsection with enhanced hurricane threats on the East Coast. The reason is simple: We have the same type of natural cyclical pattern we had then, with the Pacific going into its cold stage (cold PDO) while the Atlantic is in its warm stage (warm AMO). The warm AMO is also responsible for the Arctic ice cap being smaller than it used to be when the AMO was cold. But debunking one climate change myth at a time is all I am going to do here, so let's take a look at the well forecasted drought by students of natural climate cycles, that the AGW (now climate change, climate extremes, etc.) crowd is playing up.

I have been on national television several times over the past six years saying we would go into a pattern similar to the 1950s with drought and heat centered over the nation’s midsection with enhanced hurricane threats on the East Coast. The reason is simple: We have the same type of natural cyclical pattern we had then, with the Pacific going into its cold stage (cold PDO) while the Atlantic is in its warm stage (warm AMO). The warm AMO is also responsible for the Arctic ice cap being smaller than it was when the AMO was cold. But debunking one climate change myth at a time is all I am going to do here, so let’s take a look at the well-forecasted drought that Climate Ambulance Chasers are playing up.

If we look at the years when the Pacific went into its cold stage while the Atlantic was warm (cold PDO, warm AMO from 1951-1960), we have this:

Now let’s see what happened in the years that the earth was warming, because of the warm PDO between 1978-2007:

The U.S. is wet!

Notice how wet Texas was when the global temperature was climbing, exactly opposite of what President Barack Obama said last year during the Texas drought, when the earth was cooling. (Has he called the governor of Texas yet to say he misspoke? Don’t hold your breath.)

A picture is worth a thousand words. When the Pacific is in its warm cycle, as it was from 1978-2007, El Niños are more frequent, so the input of tropical moisture into the U.S. allows for more rain. And guess what happens when you warm the tropical Pacific after it was in its cold cycle? Since the oceans have a thousand times the heat capacity of air, the air warms when the oceans warm. It’s simple climate cycle theory that can be seen below:

Notice the disconnect with CO2 (green) and how close ocean (blue) and air temperatures (red) are linked.

As soon as the earth warms up enough so a balance is reached, it levels off and then starts to cool (remember, we started the satellite era at the end of the last cold cycle in the late 1970s, so a warm PDO can be expected to warm the atmosphere). The cooling starting now will probably take temperatures back to the levels they were in 1978 by 2030, once the Atlantic shifts to cold in five to 10 years.

Want to see something even more astounding? Look at the summers of 1952-54 versus the past three years, again in the same part of the climate cycle we were in during the 1950s.

1952-1954 look like this:

Compare that to the last three years:

It was drier in that period of the 1950s than it has been now, suggesting the worst is yet to come! I also suggest the dryness is being exaggerated relative to what has actually happened before. Remember: Drought breeds heat, since dry ground means the sun does not have to waste energy evaporating water out of the ground. The ground heats faster, so the air above it does too.

It’s not rocket science, and it’s certainly not CO2. Yet why does the mainstream media simply swallow the extreme weather idea without even looking at the naturally occurring factors that are obvious?

Remember: The hurricane aspect is there. I have said many time since before 2010 that we are entering a perilous time on the East Coast. You can look at my previous hurricane-related posts.

Climate Ambulance Chasers are trying to rely on the fact that most people don’t know the meteorological history of the planet and that we now can observe everything to drive their agenda. That has precious little to do with actual protection of our environment. Instead, it’s a control issue. As of now, there is no law against arming yourself with knowledge to defend against this, and my suggestion is that you continue to do so. Not doing so will limit even more of your freedom.

Joe Bastardi is chief forecaster at WeatherBELL Analytics, a meteorological consulting firm.

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