July 18, 2024

Our Next Vice President?

Donald Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his running mate is a big deal.

The suspense, masterfully orchestrated by the former president, is over. On Monday, just as the Republican National Convention was starting, Donald Trump announced that his running mate for the 2024 election would be Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Last night in Milwaukee, Vance gave a rousing speech as he officially accepted the nomination. Given the current trends in the race, Vance will be our next U.S. vice president. Then comes the hard part.

As a rule, running-mate choices are primarily fodder for debate among political pundits regarding the pros and cons of various candidates, just one more step in the presidential election cycle. That all changed abruptly at 6:16 p.m. this past Saturday with the assassination attempt that very nearly took Trump’s life.

That horrific event was a stark reminder of the fragility and uncertainty of life and the reality that any day — today, for example — our chief executive could become instantly unavailable. As has happened on eight occasions in U.S. history, his or her second in command must be ready to step in immediately. Who of our age can ever forget the stunning loss of John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963?

But beyond that grim prospect, it is also true that a candidate’s choice for a vice-presidential running mate has rarely been as important as the one Trump wrestled with for months. Trump’s VP choice is critically important on three levels: (1) helping him win the election (which is far from in the bag at this point), (2) helping him navigate through the certain minefield ahead, and (3) being the center point for our nation’s post-Trump future. Considering each:

1.) While it remains to be seen how Trump’s choice of Vance as running mate will affect his election prospects, it stands in sharp contrast with Joe Biden’s DEI-driven choice at this same point four years ago. Biden announced in advance that he would pick a woman of color for the job — as if ethnicity or gender has anything to do with successfully handling the daunting job of the presidency.

Maybe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris helped him in 2020, but paradoxically, the electorate’s generally unfavorable views of Harris are complicating the Democrats’ 2024 dilemma of how to deal with the president’s evident physical decline. At this point, it must be clear to any potential Democrat supporter that a vote for Biden is, in effect, a vote for Harris. Trump’s choice of a demonstrably capable VP candidate could well be the difference that wins him the White House.

2.) Regarding Vance’s vice-presidential role in helping his boss handle the toughest job on the planet, it all depends on Trump’s willingness to use his VP in that capacity. In my view, one of the worst aspects of Trump’s first-term performance was the revolving door into and out of his inner circle — too many times, we watched executives arrive with great fanfare and then leave too soon on bad terms with the president.

Trump often asserts that his first and foremost criterion in selecting senior staff is loyalty. That’s OK in principle, but I suspect that he tends to blur the distinction between loyalty and unquestioning subservience. Mike Pence served President Trump very well for four years; their partnership fell apart when Pence was willing to say “No” to Trump at a time when Trump needed to hear “No” — for which he was banished forever from Trump’s orbit.

In early interviews over the past few days, Vance has emphasized his responsibility to be unflinchingly candid in communications with his new boss. If he does so, and if Trump welcomes that input, the partnership will work.

3.) More important than both of the above is the critical need for the next president to put in place a person who can carry forward in the years ahead. Trump is not the answer for what ails America. But he is the answer to wresting control from the crowd that has been pushing us toward the cliff for the past four years. Should Trump win in November, the team that he fields will be our future.

J.D. Vance was a bold choice for Trump — he is 39 years old, and the totality of his government experience is one partial term as U.S. senator (interestingly, the same as Barack Obama’s in 2008). But his life story is truly remarkable — rise from abject poverty, an abusive father and substance-addicted mother, an enlisted Marine with service in Iraq, a summa cum laude graduate of Ohio State University and Yale Law, a venture capitalist, married with three young children, and election to the United States Senate. His is the quintessential American success story. What better foundation for a future president for all Americans?

Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first- and second-term VP, the colorful Texas Congressman and former House Speaker John Nance Garner, dismissively described the job as “not worth a pitcher of warm spit.” But he played a pivotal role in pushing through FDR’s New Deal legislation, a historical imprint still present today.

The vice presidency can be a cushy job, a semi-vacation, or an opportunity to contribute to a fundamental change in the course of history. On the heels of a precipitous decline in prospects for another Biden administration, a shocking assassination attempt, a resurging and unified GOP, and now a possible glimpse into the political future, we may be witnessing a true sea change.

I hope so.

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