Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is heading to Washington to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to his country’s rare earth mineral deposits. According to Donald Trump, “We’re going to be signing an agreement, which will be a very big agreement, that’ll be on rare earth and other things.”

The development marks a seemingly drastic swing from just a week ago when Trump, frustrated with Zelensky’s obstinance in negotiating a deal with Russia to end the years-long war, suggested that Ukraine started the war. While Trump later backed off that false claim, he expressed displeasure with Zelensky, and it may have been the necessary chess move.

Zelensky has been demanding the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, including Crimea, but he now seems willing to negotiate. Trump also labeled Zelensky a dictator for refusing to hold elections (importantly, Ukraine’s constitution forbids elections under martial law), but the Ukrainian leader has since expressed his willingness to leave office if it would secure peace.

For Trump, the agreement is a bit of a twofer. Not only is he looking to end the war in Ukraine, but he’s also looking to find access to rare earth minerals outside of China. Estimates are that Ukraine’s six known deposits may contain as much as $500 billion in mineral wealth.

That said, there are some significant drawbacks, not the least of which is the fact that two of those mineral deposit sites are located in Ukrainian territory that is currently occupied by Russian forces.

Furthermore, the data on these mineral deposits is rather old. These sites were last mapped in the 1980s. Independent geologist Tony Mariano observed, “To my knowledge, there are no economically viable rare earth deposits in Ukraine.” However, he added, “This doesn’t mean there aren’t any, only that further exploration and evaluation needs to be done.”

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is making the U.S. his own mineral offer, and Trump has far from dismissed it. “You know, they have massive rare earth. It’s … very large,” he said. “If we could do that, I think it would be a very good thing for world peace and lasting peace. Just as we’re doing with Ukraine, if we could do some economic development in terms of Russia and getting things that we want, something like that would be possible.”

The problem is that Putin’s mineral offer includes the aforementioned Ukrainian land occupied by Russian forces. If an agreement was made with Russia, would this not seemingly reward Putin’s decision to invade in the first place?

For Ukraine, with the prospect of joining NATO a nonstarter, getting the U.S. signed onto a mineral rights deal would afford a measure of future security against further Russian aggression since doing so would threaten U.S. assets.

Another issue, should this deal go through, is the message it sends to both Taiwan and China. If China elects to invade Taiwan, what assurances does Taiwan have that Trump will have its back? If China offers Trump some kind of deal in exchange for staying out of its efforts to take Taiwan, will Trump accept it?

What assurances does Taiwan have that it, like Ukraine, won’t end up getting sidelined in a deal-making process for peace? While Trump may see his efforts in Ukraine as finally ending the war, ironically, it may be sowing the seeds for greater Chinese aggression in Taiwan.