“It was just an accident” is effectively the excuse that is being presented after multiple Russian drones entered Polish territory last week. NATO fighter jets were quick to respond to the drones, shooting them down, making it the first instance of direct military action between Russia and NATO.

Russian officials claimed the drones were not targeting Poland.

Donald Trump, clearly seeking to keep the situation from escalating, stated, “Could have been a mistake. Could have been a mistake. But regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But hopefully it’s going to come to an end.”

The main issue here is that it raises concerns surrounding Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which, if invoked, could set the stage for the invocation of Article 5, the treaty’s cornerstone of collective defense, that would put NATO nations in a state of war against Russia. Importantly, any NATO member has the authority to unilaterally invoke Article 4.

Trump, of course, does not want that to happen, nor do the majority of NATO nations. But Poland, a NATO member, is certainly not happy with Russian drones in its airspace. And furthermore, Polish officials aren’t buying Russia’s accident excuse, but have been careful not to say they believe it was deliberate.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk informed lawmakers that he was activating Article 4, which would allow Poland to register an official concern with NATO nations, but it does not yet equate to a request for assistance.

NATO nations will now “exchange views and information, and discuss issues prior to reaching agreement and taking action." This action by Poland marks the eighth time in NATO history, going back to its establishment in 1949, that Article 4 has been invoked. The last time was in 2022, upon Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and prior to that, it was 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.

NATO has issued a warning to Russia.

It appears that Vladimir Putin is engaging in a bit of NATO probing, pressing to see how far he can push the alliance, looking for weaknesses. What this also suggests is that Putin has no intention of ending his war with Ukraine anytime soon. He wants all of Ukraine, and then some.

Poland is rightly concerned. Predictably, Moscow’s response to the developments has been one of denial and ridiculous accusations. "We consider the accusations groundless. No evidence that these drones are of Russian origin has been presented,” stated Russia’s Charge d'Affaires to Poland, Andrei Ordash. “Russia is absolutely not interested in any escalation with Poland, but, unfortunately, there is no reason to expect that the Polish authorities in their anti-Russian frenzy will listen to us either.”

Poland doesn’t exactly have a history of war-like aggression. Nor has it ever been invaded by Russia — oh, wait.

Given the current state of things, it appears that the Ukraine war is far from over, as Putin seems bound and determined to continue grinding it out, while banking on NATO and the U.S. getting tired of supporting a slowly shrinking Ukraine.