While the White House continues to defend the NSA’s sweeping data mining operations targeting U.S. telephone records, a recent independent report from the New America Foundation states that the NSA program has had “no discernible impact on preventing acts of terrorism.” The report examined 225 terrorism cases that have been prosecuted in the U.S. since 9/11, attempting to determine which investigative methods led to the capture of the terrorists. According to the Foundation, only four of the cases involved Section 215 surveillance, the part of the Patriot Act upon which the NSA bases its broad and indiscriminant collection of U.S. telephone records. The bulk of the investigations that led to capture were the result of community/family tips and other informants.

However, the study has a significant hole – a full 27.6% of the cases examined were investigated using “unclear” methods. That large unknown category could include more Section 215 cases, but it’s impossible to know for sure. And of the four cases that were definitely nailed because of Section 215, the question must be asked whether they alone justify the danger to civil liberties inherent in the NSA program.

Barack Obama is unlikely to stop the surveillance altogether, however, if for no other reason than his penchant for avoiding responsibility. He doesn’t want to be in the hot seat should a successful attack occur after Section 215 is shuttered. Recognizing that to be the case, a group of former NSA intelligence operatives have petitioned him to meet to discuss a series of reforms. The group has 21 recommendations including: forcing the NSA to be subject to U.S. District, Appeals and Supreme Court precedent on Fourth Amendment matters; establishing severe penalties for government officials who violate privacy rights; applying effective whistleblower protections to members of the national security apparatus; and outlawing the use of foreign intelligence partners to circumvent U.S. laws.

On Friday, Obama plans to issue new guidelines for the surveillance program, the most high profile response he’s given since Edward Snowden’s leaks. From all appearances, his plan is to straddle the fence.