The idea of China and Russia in alliance against the international order has kept American national security officials up at night for decades. In the early years of the Cold War, the biggest fear many Americans held was over the alliance between the Soviet Union and Communist China, respectively the largest and the most populous countries on Earth. That fear remains.

Even though the Soviet Union is no more, modern Russia and China are both bent on empire. The United States, now as in the Cold War, stands in the way of their plans. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, clever dictators that they are, recognize that together they can stand as an effective bulwark against the U.S. Each of these nations alone constitutes a threat to the international order; together they are an absolute menace.

The Russian and Chinese governments issued a joint statement on February 4, confirming their friendship to the world and their desire for peace and security. That’s not a joke. The statement really said that.

February 4 was a very long time ago, though. It was before the Olympic Winter Games in Beijing, a farce that most Americans chose not to waste their time watching. The Beijing Olympics were Xi’s opportunity to showcase China to the world. But we already know all about China and its extensive human rights abuses, its vast intellectual property crimes and theft in international markets, its military bullying, and its routine disregard for the environment and public health. COVID anyone? Viewership was at an all-time low, and even the media couldn’t turn away from the mess that is the host country’s regime.

February 4 was also before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a move that doesn’t seem to have turned out how Putin intended. Ukrainian resistance has been intense, and international condemnation has been swift and widespread. Some wonder if Putin has inadvertently reanimated a long-moribund Western alliance. Either way, if Putin obtains any victory at all, it will cost far more than he anticipated.

With these two significant events following so closely after the Russia-China joint statement, we are left to ponder what the state of their friendship is at this point.

China has yet to actively condemn Russia for its Ukraine invasion, and it probably never will. But there is reason to suspect that Xi is not happy with Vlad right now for putting China in such a difficult position.

China will not willingly take part in international sanctions against Russia, but Chinese companies and banks may not have any choice. They can either go along with the sanctions, or they may continue to invest in Russia and be frozen out of European, American, and Asian markets. China’s economy is not strong enough to be isolated from the bulk of the international consumer market for any period of time. They will have to follow the dollars and the euros or watch their economy falter.

China may also see its own territorial ambitions stunted because of Putin’s Ukraine folly. The region is already on edge because of China’s menacing behavior toward Taiwan, with which it has long planned to “reunify.” The Chinese have prided themselves on incrementally taking over the entire region, and sadly, it’s gone rather well so far. But now the slightest provocation could set the combined forces of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Australia on high alert, putting an end to decades of work by the Chinese to establish regional hegemony.

The joint Russia-China statement was not a mutual defense pact, though it is vague on the extent of their alliance. Joint military action is not ruled out, but they are not brothers in arms bound by treaty. This means that any support Xi gives Putin is based on strategic decisions. How much does Russia mean to China? Is China’s future inextricably linked to Russia’s?

The Chinese have been playing the long game for decades by infiltrating world governing bodies, softening up international markets with cheap goods, stealing technology, and building a 21st-century military. It plans to challenge the U.S. for its position at the top of the international order, and that is why Xi made common cause with Putin. But the Chinese leader may be regretting that now, particularly as China tries to make political and economic inroads with Europe.

In the long view, China may like having Russia as an ally, but not with Vladimir Putin at the helm.