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November 17, 2022

Digging Out

Failure can be instructive if we allow it to be. That’s true even of national elections.

Republicans, reckoning with the wreckage from last week’s midterm elections, probably feel like South Floridians walking around the morning after Hurricane Ian, eyes like saucers. Did that really happen?

It did happen: Election 2022 was a catastrophe for Republicans, a gut-wrenching loss, a horribly squandered opportunity. And it was bad for the nation as well, a missed chance to provide some balance to the Biden administration’s unilateral leadership. Sure, there were some bright spots, but in the main, Republicans blew it. Epic failure.

Of course, failure can be instructive if we allow it to be. As any good football coach will tell you, how a team reacts to a shocking loss — or to a serendipitous win, for that matter — is likely to dictate its success for the balance of the season. So, let’s take a step back and consider takeaways from Election 2022.

Republicans first. There are plenty of reasons why the GOP underperformed, but front and center is its Trump problem. It’s time — way past time, actually — for Mr. Trump to step aside, voluntarily or not.

It is once again crystal clear that Trump’s outsized involvement and wrecking ball temperament are major impediments to GOP electoral success. They project an ugly — but accurate — picture of a party in disarray, a picture that evidently does not inspire voter confidence.

The Trump enigma has been looming too large over the GOP’s (and the nation’s) future for too long. Many Republicans agree with Trump’s policy instincts, and they admire his resilience and tenacity, but they know too that his reckless post-2020 election behavior cost the GOP the U.S. Senate majority two years ago and had the same effect last week.

Republicans, whether they like Trump or not, must recognize that another Trump run for president is doomed to failure. He is politically toxic.

The reality check on Trump’s vanishing prospects in 2024 may prove to be the silver lining on the otherwise gloomy cloud of the 2022 midterms. Prior to last week’s collapse, the party was girding for a long, nasty intra-GOP war to determine who will be its standard-bearer. There may still be a war, but I believe it will be soon and short.

Aside from its Trump dilemma, the 2022 lessons for the GOP are straightforward. Policy-wise, they’re on solid ground. Clearly, however, it’s not enough to be the Party of Not Biden — instead, GOP strategy must get back to basics: a clear agenda, better candidates, work harder, and play better.

On the other side, Democrats better not get too comfortable. No, President Joe Biden and Senator Chuck Schumer, the election results are not a validation of your hard-left agenda. A validation of your election tactics, perhaps, but not your agenda.

Tactically, Democrats win, hands down. Biden’s timing on his patently unconstitutional student debt forgiveness was perfect — just in time to win support from tens of thousands of young voters, and late enough to survive until Election Day. A federal judge suspended it three days after the election.

And having treated America to a four-year clinic on 2016 election denial (a reprise of their 2000 election denial), Democrat leaders top to bottom now adamantly insist — without a trace of embarrassment — that anyone who questions an election result (i.e., a denier) poses a threat to American democracy and is therefore unsuitable for public office. The smear worked beautifully.

While not exactly admirable, Democrat election tactics are effective. They play hardball. Republicans must learn to deal with it.

But Democrats, don’t delude yourselves into thinking that mainstream Americans view crushing inflation as a temporary inconvenience; that they’re so worried about climate change that they’re willing to accept sky-high energy costs and diminished reliability; that they think crime is just a Republican talking point; or that they’re OK with “gender affirming” mutilation of children.

The abortion issue will soon end up where it should have been all along — in the hands of voters, who will surely settle on legality with reasonable restrictions. Similarly, with Trump out of the picture, Americans’ interest in January 6 will wane, along with the democracy-in-peril narrative.

And so, in due time, Democrats will also have to start addressing those mundane kitchen-table issues that concern most Americans.

And, finally, a point for both sides: For more than a week after Election Day, we didn’t know for sure which party would control the House of Representatives. That’s the new normal, and it’s supposed to be OK. It’s not. Surely we can find a way to run elections more efficiently, securely, and consistently.

As unpleasant as it was, 2022 is not an election to be forgotten. It is to be understood and taken to heart. We can do better.

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