“Dangerous” is the keyword in today’s Washington Post headline about the labor force under President Donald Trump. Stuart Anderson and Mark Regets, both of the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), authored an op-ed to dissect some numbers on immigration and the job market ahead of Labor Day, and they issue a stern warning to the president.
Donald Trump is on track to become the first president in a century to oversee a U.S. labor force that will be smaller when he leaves office than when he entered. Since the start of his second term, the number of people in the United States who are either employed or looking for a job has dropped by 1.6 million — and it’s largely because of Trump’s immigration restrictions. Unless those policies change, a shrinking workforce will cause slower economic growth and lead to more expensive public debt.
Anderson and Regets aren’t left-wingers. Anderson formerly worked for the libertarian Cato Institute and served under President George W. Bush as policy director at the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Both are pro-immigration and anti-illegal immigration — a long-standing Republican stance.
But let’s back up a minute.
President Joe Biden and his inept border czar Kamala Harris allowed at least 10 million illegals to cross the border and stay in the country during their four-year term. The migrant flood created a humanitarian crisis at the border, added to a crime wave Democrats fomented over George Floyd, and triggered an immense backlash among voters disinclined to see our nation overrun by lawlessness. Trump promised that, if reelected, he would cut off the flow and begin deportations.
The NFAP duo notes, “The Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey for July recorded a decline of 1.8 million foreign-born workers since January 2025.” Overall, there are three million fewer immigrants in the U.S. since Trump took office.
Yes, Trump is doing what he promised.
That said, Anderson and Regets are correct that there are trade-offs. Historically, the labor force has grown at a generally steady rate. It suddenly shrinking will have real economic consequences. “Immigrants are not only workers,” they observe, “but also consumers.” Fewer consumers means lower demand, which means slower business growth.
Despite warnings from the likes of Paul Ehrlich about an overpopulation crisis, people are resources, and we need an increasing population. (I try to remind myself of this while sitting in rush hour traffic.)
Still, there are some important caveats. The pair mention demographics only in passing, and only regarding data from 20 years ago: “Falling birth rates slowed the expansion of the U.S.-born labor force after the early 2000s, but thanks to immigration the number of total workers still rose by 1.6 million during Barack Obama’s first term and by 3.9 million during his second.”
Importing labor to cover for Americans not having babies is not a good or permanent solution. But the birth rate has been falling for decades now, with no sign of changing course anytime soon. You can thank any number of factors for that, but it seems the culture has produced more Gloria Steinems and Lindsay Clancy defenders than babies. Until militant feminism recedes and married men and women start producing more children, the demographic spiral will continue.
Another factor is the number of unemployed or underemployed American men. Our Samantha Koch delved into this underreported crisis earlier this week, as did our Weekly Verdict podcast team. Koch said, “Roughly 44 million working-age men are now outside the labor force — about nine million more than in 2012 — while male labor-force participation has fallen to just 66.8%.”
In other words, the size of the labor force is not necessarily an immigration problem. And men leaving the workforce is both the result and the cause of a whole host of other problems, including the demographic spiral.
There is, however, good news on the economic front. The economy created 162,000 jobs in August, the best showing since April. The headline unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.
Next up is a manufacturing boom. Political analyst Gary Bauer sums it up in a bulleted list:
- New factory orders rose 0.9% in July, nearly double the “experts’” predictions.
- Durable-goods orders are up 7.6%.
- Machinery orders are up 12.3%.
- Computer and electronics orders are up 14.3%.
- Primary metals orders are up 14.4%.
- Industrial machinery and communications equipment orders are up nearly 40%.
- Manufacturing job openings rose to 580,000 in July, up 35% from one year ago.
There are reasons to dislike President Trump’s tariffs, but it certainly seems that they’re spurring at least some of this growth.
In any case, the most important policies for economic expansion are low taxes, limited regulations, and a secure border with sane immigration numbers. For good measure, let’s throw in growing families.
Happy Labor Day.
