Did you know? The Patriot Post is funded 100% by its readers. Help us stay front and center in the fight for Liberty and support the 2022 Year-End Campaign.

Joe Bastardi / May 24, 2019

America, the Beautiful

When it comes to crop conditions, God has certainly shed His grace on thee.

O beautiful for spacious skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the fruited plain!

When it comes to crop conditions, God has certainly shed His grace on thee. We have been spared from the horrors of the perma-drought and new dust bowl that was being touted as late as 2013.

It’s true that during the hot, dry summers of 2010, 2011, and 2012, U.S. food production leveled off a bit, but it has climbed 8-10% ever since.

(Source: https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/USA/foodproductionindex/.)

The fact is that during the periods of 1931-1940 and 1952-1954, drought conditions were far worse than this most recent dry period, during which the hysteria was reaching a fever pitch. There is no question these more extreme cases were because of natural occurrences, which begs the question: Why is the less-severe case being blamed on an artificial cause?

Here’s the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to September, 1931-1940:

Here’s 1952-1954:

Here’s 2010-2012:

And here’s since 2014:

A large part of the dry area in the West during this previous five-year period is because it was dry in California until two years ago. When the Great Plains reversed, the hysteria was refocused on the West Coast. But, lo and behold, what happened? The PDSI index shows a record-breaking lack of drought over the U.S.

This is, again, exactly opposite of what was being touted. The crucial assumption that warming aloft would shut down precipitation has not occurred. Quite frankly, the bust on this is as real and spectacular as the pronouncements that snow would be a thing of the past or that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013.

Yet this reversal was predictable. And since we at Weatherbell.com are also in the forecasting business for agriculture, we let whoever wishes to listen know that, like the 1950s, this would reverse.

Publicly, we also try to get it out there.

This is from Jan 2013: “Widespread Dryness: Been There, Done That, Naturally.”

And this is from May 2016: “Examples of History Beating Hysteria in Climate and Weather.”

Guess what? It appears another year of non-drought is evolving. Here’s the latest CFSv2 temperature forecast for the summer:

Here’s the precipitation outlook:

Overall, it certainly looks moist and relatively mild in areas where we grow a lot of food.

The fact is, if there is any worry at all, it’s that it may be so cold for so long in some of these areas. If it gets cold again during the early fall, that’s a problem. Our agriculture guys are looking at that very closely. It’s not a forecast yet, but I pass it along to mention that these potential problems are not being caused by hot and dry conditions.

Here’s the point to remember: Rarely in an (almost) infinite system does one set of variables control the entire picture. It’s usually a combination of variables, and one has to correctly take into account attribution and forcing. From forecasting a snowstorm to the earth’s climate, what is on the playing field has to be evaluated for its influence. I am not going to rehash all the examples of natural forcing we have discussed, but suffice it to say, blaming the ups and downs of weather and climate on one variable, CO2, which has recently been labeled as a climate control knob, is questionable and does raise skepticism, especially when there are a myriad of occurrences before that were caused by strictly natural combinations of events.

I don’t see why this is an unreasonable position to take. But when someone says snow will soon be a thing of the past or the Arctic will be ice-free or there is a perma-drought coming (none of which occurred) or we only have 12 years left to live, I think an examination is in order.

In the meantime, the problem this year has been caused by too much cold and its clash with the warmth in the Southeast. It’s likely the dry area over the Southeast will expand back to the west, which will lead to some problems. But when that becomes an example of man-made climate change, remember the amber waves of grain that are leading to the opposite result of what was being touted.


Joe Bastardi, a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting, is a contributor to The Patriot Post on environmental issues. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others.”

Start a conversation using these share links:

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2022 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.