Those of us who live in blue states with Democrat representatives remember how they were so proud of what they did to Donald Trump at the end of his first term, hoping to pave the way to total control in 2020, with a media-aided strategy of obfuscate, obstruct, and impeach. They succeeded, plunging us into a dark four years, but America survived intact. Trump somehow returned for round two, leaving a lot of AWFLs to scream something about “no kings” on street corners. (And they’re right: no kings since 1776.)
If you’re as pessimistic as Timothy Carney of the Washington Examiner, though, you lead off your analysis of the upcoming 2026 midterm election by announcing, “Republicans are going to get destroyed in this fall’s elections. Democrats will probably take the House of Representatives and the Senate, too. It would be a surprise if they didn’t also win most governor races while taking over state legislatures.”
Carney could be correct: the betting site Polymarket has Democrats with overwhelming odds of winning the House (over 90%), and its projections also show a nearly two-out-of-three chance of them claiming the Senate, too.
But all of that could be driven by pollaganda and media-driven perception.
It’s hard to believe President Trump has such low poll numbers when several sectors of the economy are doing well: new unemployment claims have been hovering at lows not seen in decades, the poverty level is the smallest on record, and stock markets are near their all-time highs. His deal to acquire a permanent presence in Greenland could pay dividends for decades given the island’s resource potential and strategic location.
On the other hand, Trump has created a lot of self-inflicted wounds for himself, primarily his favored trade tactic of tariffs and his “war of choice” (as Democrats call it) with Iran, which has dramatically increased prices for both gasoline and diesel fuel. (Here we understand that the Iranian conflict is just another offshoot of the Long War against radical Islam; however, Trump was elected on the vow of no more foreign wars.) Both of these factors have contributed to persistent inflation, which Trump pledged to bring down after all the price surges under President Autopen.
Nor have voters been swayed by the promise of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” should Republicans retain control of both houses.
With that in mind, some pundits have already begun writing their predictions for the next Congress, and they generally feature the “I” word prominently. “If Democrats take the House, investigations and impeachment proceedings are certain,” writes Peter Laffin, also at the Examiner. “There will be a parade of grandstanding, self-indulgent nincompoopery — just as in Trump’s first term. These are Democrats, after all.”
But Laffin cautions that, while they would need well over a dozen Republican senators to go along for a conviction, Trump’s unpopularity and the whiff of financial improprieties that Democrats will doggedly investigate half to death may lead us back to Watergate territory. Perhaps they think if Trump resigns like Richard Nixon did when faced with a Senate trial he could lose, Vice President JD Vance could get a few months of incumbency leading into the 2028 election.
“The Republicans to keep a close eye on next year are those most closely associated with Vice President JD Vance, especially senators,” Laffin continues. “Their calculation here will be simple: If running as an incumbent president with a record of his own will boost Vance’s 2028 odds more than running as a third-term heir to Trump’s legacy, they will be more open to removing Trump in the event of truly damaging revelations.” (Also keep in mind that a Trump resignation at that point would allow Vance to run for two additional terms, not just one.)
For their part, while the Democrat rank-and-file is angry enough to wish President Trump dead, some in Congress are more cautious about impeachment. At a recent campaign event, Senator Tammy Duckworth stated her preference: She’d “rather move the ball forward to the benefit of the American people. And if we can do it in a way that allows him to save face and he doesn’t stop us, then that’s better for everybody all around.”
But it’s likely more congressional Democrats align with Representative Ro Khanna on this one.
“Impeachment says that you can’t get into an illegal war in Iran without constitutional approval,” said Khanna. “Impeachment says that you can’t just start firing federal employees in defiance of what Congress says. Impeachment says you can’t do deals with foreign governments to allegedly enrich your own family. It’s about setting a standard. And the Democrats can impeach to uphold constitutional values and at the same time have a first 100 days agenda that deals with the cost of living.”
On that last part: yeah, right. We remember the bad old days of early 2019 and the Left’s constant complaints about Trump’s tax cuts.
Obviously, the best way to avoid this is to make sure the Republicans hold the House, but that’s going to require a lot of heavy economic lifting very soon. The best October surprise would be Iran’s sudden capitulation and a corresponding drop in oil prices.
But if the worst happens and Democrats do win Congress, mark my words: their first order of business in 2027 won’t be to benefit the American people. They certainly wouldn’t do so by passing their communist-adjacent agenda, but fortunately it would get a sure veto Republicans could sustain with their remaining numbers in Congress.
Instead, their task once again will be to obfuscate, obstruct, and impeach — not necessarily in that order.







