January 20, 2025

Taiwan’s Future and Fate Depend on the U.S. — Part I

In this first of three parts, we’ll look at the history of Taiwan.

The Republic of China (ROC) met with the U.S. and Great Britain in Cairo in 1943. The head of the ROC, Chiang Kai-shek, met with President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill to discuss the state of the war in Asia and the contest between the ROC and the communists under Mao Zedong for control of China. The two preeminent Western leaders promised the island of Formosa (now Taiwan) to the ROC after the war. At the time, Japan controlled Formosa, and the Chinese civil war on the mainland was mostly dormant while both continued to fight the Japanese up until the end of WWII.

After Japan surrendered, the war in China between the communists and the nationalists under Chiang erupted again. Mao’s forces won the civil war, resulting in the ROC retreating from the mainland to Taiwan in 1949. Chiang and 1.2 million of his forces and people left the mainland for good and settled in Taiwan. They have been there ever since as a sovereign country separate from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), governing themselves for over 75 years.

The PRC says Taiwan is its 23rd province. However, Taiwan functions entirely independently. That Taiwan is part of the PRC is a charade, as everyone who wants to trade with Taiwan knows that they must deal with Taiwan, not the PRC. In addition to the 12 formal embassies in Taiwan, more than 60 countries maintain trade or other offices in Taiwan. Taiwan’s people identify as Taiwanese, not Chinese. Ninety percent of the population consider themselves to be Taiwanese, and only a tiny percent consider themselves to be Chinese.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made numerous public statements about Taiwan during his time in office that Taiwan is part of the PRC. He considers it a legacy achievement during his rule to bring Taiwan back into the fold. Taiwan’s view is that will never happen short of war. Elections confirm this view by the Taiwanese population, as in election after election, voters choose leaders who favor the status quo — Taiwan as an independent nation.

Taiwan’s population today is 24 million. They are the free people of Taiwan, which is a constitutional democracy with roots dating back to 1912 in mainland China. Taiwan maintains embassies in 79 nations and considers itself part of the international community. Unfortunately, only 11 other countries and Vatican City continue to recognize Taiwan’s legitimacy as a separate nation as of 2024. This is due to a relentless campaign for decades by the PRC to convince other nations that Taiwan is part of China. PRC policy either threatens or bribes countries around the world to cease recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign nation. The PRC has been persistent for a long time in eroding Taiwan’s status as an independent nation, and due to its economic power and propaganda efforts, it, unfortunately, has convinced much of the world to accept the fiction that Taiwan is part of the PRC. Privately, the world knows better.

In a shocking decision on January 1, 1979, President Jimmy Carter unilaterally recognized the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate ruler of China and downgraded Taiwan’s status to a kind of limbo. Congress expressed its view of the president’s unilateral decision by quickly passing the Taiwan Defense Act. The bill passed 90-6 in the Senate and 345-55 in the House, demonstrating Congress’s overwhelming support for the ROC. That law has been in effect ever since.

The Act provides significant support to Taiwan, including military arms. It stops short of guaranteeing that the U.S. will protect Taiwan in the event of an attack from the mainland. However, sympathies for Taiwan’s independence have remained extremely high in the U.S. for generations. The U.S. has provided military and economic support to Taiwan in meaningful ways for decades by providing advanced defensive weapons systems to Taiwan.

The list of weapons the U.S. has sold to Taiwan for decades runs into hundreds of systems and billions of dollars. Advanced systems such as the F-16 and all its associated weapons systems and many of America’s advanced missiles, including Standard missiles, Tomahawks, HARM, AMRAAM, Harpoon, Sidewinder, and many others. Other weapons systems include tanks, the Patriot missile system, mine-hunting ships, Blackhawk helicopters, P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, diesel submarines, and Chinook helicopters. The list of weapons sold by the U.S. goes on and on.

It’s not just selling weapons; it’s also other support and bilateral military relations, training, logistical support, and more. Decades of support and the billions of dollars of sophisticated ships, aircraft, and weapons prove the U.S.‘s commitment to Taiwan. The U.S., by policy, intends for Taiwan to be able to defend itself from China. Only the PRC is threatening Taiwan.

By now, it is no secret what China did to Hong Kong. What Beijing did was illegal, immoral, and reprehensible. China violated the 50-year agreement with Great Britain at year 23 of that agreement and cracked down on Hong Kong, effectively ending its economic and political independence and locking up thousands in the process. The world, including the U.S., stood idly by and watched as the crackdown proceeded.

This lawless behavior is typical of the PRC. The PRC follows no rules, abides by no standards, and is accountable to no one. It was disgraceful for the world to let the PRC brutally subdue and subjugate Hong Kong with zero consequences. The PRC has cleverly addicted the world to its cheap products, and the world prefers to look away from its brutal and illegal behavior while trade continues.

Does the behavior of the world in response to the PRC’s illegal takeover of Hong Kong presage its reaction to an invasion of Taiwan? Will we stand with the Taiwanese or abandon them?


I have given this subject a lot of study and thought for some time. For more background information related to Taiwan, see the following articles:

Navy Missiles and the Defense of Taiwan: Part 1

Navy Missiles and the Defense of Taiwan: Part 2

What Are Rare Earth Metals, and Why Should We Care?

Taiwan In China’s Crosshairs

The Looming Taiwan Challenge

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