Now that both conventions have ended and each party’s nominees have been confirmed, what can be learned and expected as the campaign season moves forward? First, let’s take a look at the numbers. Of the 221 million eligible American voters only 30 million voted during the primaries. Donald Trump received the most votes of any Republican nominee in history, but Hillary Clinton received even more votes, thanks to the fact that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. Even with a record number voting this primary season, only 9% of Americans selected Trump and Clinton as the nominees.

As expected, both Trump and Clinton received respective jumps in the polls following their conventions. Though the polls show that Trump has slightly narrowed the gap nationally, this election will be won or lost based upon acquiring the electoral votes from the usual swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. For Trump to have a realistic chance of winning, he needs to sweep all three. With Hillary essentially starting at 242 electoral votes, all she would need to win is 28 more. Florida alone accounts for 29.

Of course, four months is a political eternity. Will this highly unprecedented and thus far unpredictable election year continue to surprise and confound? Or will recent electoral history and conventional wisdom hold sway confirming that this is Clinton’s election to lose? Trump may have already begun laying the groundwork for rationalizing a loss, telling a crowd he’s afraid the election is “going to be rigged.” But he also made the same argument that our own Mark Alexander made last week: “If you really like Donald Trump, that’s great, but if you don’t, you have to vote for me anyway. You know why? Supreme Court judges, Supreme Court judges. Have no choice, sorry, sorry, sorry. You have no choice.”