The probability is growing that we will see a brokered Republican convention in Tampa next August, because:

1. There are still seven serious contenders for the Presidential nomination. None of them has aroused widespread enthusiasm nor taken an indisputable lead in the polls.

2. The RNC has required all states (except Florida) that have primaries before 4/1/2012 to allocate delegates to candidates on a proportional basis, instead of the winner-take-all system that was common in recent elections. The ostensible purpose is to delay identification of the winner so as to maintain interest in the race and encourage turnout in later primaries.

By April, the primaries will be over in 28 states and 6 territories, accounting for a nominal total of 1187 delegates. This is a few more than the 1144 votes needed to win the nomination at the convention, but it is unlikely that any candidate will have a commanding lead.

In the polls so far, none of the Serious Seven gains more than 30% of the votes. If proportional primaries mean that the frontrunner on April 1 has 30% of the delegates – i.e., 356 – he or she would have to acquire 788 more to win the nomination on the first ballot. That amounts to 72% of the 1099 delegates to be assigned in later primaries. This may not be totally impossible, but it seems unlikely unless most of the Seven have dropped out of the race. The prospect of a brokered convention will however motivate the less successful candidates to continue seeking delegates, in the hope that they can be nominated on later ballots, or can at least become influential kingmakers.

If a multi-ballot battle erupts at the convention, the Republican Establishment will try to negotiate nomination of some lackluster pale-pastel RINO who thinks the way to win is to be just slightly to the right of Obama. Conservatives must be ready to win this fight. To that end, we need an immediate vigorous campaign to influence the selection of people to serve in state delegations. However they are required to vote in the first ballot, we must ensure that as many delegates as possible are pledged to support only truly conservative candidates in a second or subsequent ballot.

The delegate selection process varies considerably from state to state (for details, see thegreenpapers.com). Individuals may be selected by primary winners, by state or district conventions, by GOP committees, or by election as part of the primary. In some but not all states, active, determined participation by local conservatives can influence if not control these proceedings.

Multiple ballots at the convention would provide opportunities to nominate the most conservative and electable of the current candidates, even if his or her performance in the primaries has been less than outstanding. Moreover, the roster can include new individuals whose names are proposed from the floor. This could permit a new Republican Presidential nominee with the strongest conservative credentials and the broadest, most enthusiastic popular support. Preparing for this possibility requires assembly of a short list of competent, appealing, well-known constitutional conservatives who have agreed to accept nomination if it is offered by the convention.

The Tea Party provides the obvious basis for a grassroots campaign aimed at a conservative victory in a brokered convention. To be successful, the effort also requires (a) an organized task force to coordinate volunteers and to recommend tactics for influencing each state’s delegate selection; and (b) a highly visible, influential leader who arouses enthusiasm and commands widespread coverage in the news media.

There is no doubt that Sarah Palin would appear high on almost any list of alternative candidates who might be nominated from the convention floor. Whether or not she would accept nomination, she would be an ideal leader for the proposed effort. She already has a bully pulpit rivaling that in the Oval Office; and influencing delegate selection could be her most effective contribution to the conservative cause in 2012.

Time is getting short. Conservatives everywhere should urge Governor Palin to undertake this essential project.

Philip K. Chapman, Sc.D., Scottsdale, AZ; [email protected]. For biographical info, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_K._Chapman