February 15, 2013

Crossing the Rubicon

Editor’s note: A version of this article first appeared at RealClearMarkets.com.

The current global debt accumulations are unprecedented. In fact, it can be observed that at no time in the history of the human race, other than during periods of war, has debt accumulation on the planet ever been greater. And the most rapid debt accumulators are the world’s sovereign nations.

It is critically important to recognize that during periods of war, relative wealth is both destroyed and accumulated. The defeated lose their wealth and default on their debt obligations. The winners take the spoils of war in reparations, seized assets, etc., and create more wealth to service or liquidate their debts. There is generally a significant price inflation attended to the process for both the winner and the loser.

Today, massive debt accumulation is used not to finance new production or fight a war but to finance current consumption. The primary direct beneficiaries of the current debt issuance are government workers, retirees, and unemployed private-sector workers. These beneficiaries are consuming wealth; they are not creating it.

What is disconcerting is that the world has entered a period of slower historical growth that has resulted in lower government tax revenue worldwide. This slow growth environment is often referred to as the “new normal.”

As a result of the of the tax-revenue shortfall, central banks around the world are desperately printing cash to fund new debt issuance. Consumption is maintained, debt accumulates, and real wealth creation lags further and further behind in the “new normal” world.

Today, the U.S. federal government borrows 40 cents out of every dollar it spends and the Federal Reserve directly or indirectly prints money to fund 80 cents out of every dollar of that government debt. So far this financial arrangement has produced rising financial asset prices and no significant “officially measured” consumer price inflation.

The question that begs an answer is: How long can such an arrangement last? Why hasn’t debt-financed consumption, coupled with Federal Reserve money printing, coupled with lagging wealth creation, resulted in massive price inflation?

Is the Fed simply “pushing on a string?” Did the financial collapse of 2008 convert bankers into prudent lenders who are unwilling to extend credit to needy borrowers? Has the private sector decided to pay down debt and simply forego borrowing because of government-created uncertainty or a lack of desirable investment opportunities? Or, is it something else altogether?

The truth is no one knows. Another truth is that it may not matter. What is perhaps most important is to recognize that there is no historical precedent to act as a contextual reference for what is happening. We are in uncharted territory.

In the current fiat central-banking world, there is massive money printing going on that is now approaching the initial phase of even the most egregious hyperinflationary episodes of the past. This printing supports consumption and the “markup” in many real asset prices, such as stocks and bonds. It all feels painless so far as we appear to have entered a steady state of range-bounded volatility, inflation, consumption, production, and unemployment.

However, something very important is missing. There is no real wealth creation of the kind required to support such massive debt. The Fed’s asset “markup” program and the lack of real wealth creation simply cannot support the long-term debt accumulation enabled by Fed money printing. The Federal Reserve governors must know this, yet they continue to massively print anyway.

Absent a war, this nice little fantasy may last for a while. Debt will continue to accumulate to support consumption and the “markup” in financial asset prices. Real wealth creation will lag far behind the level necessary to support such huge piles of debt. Officially measured inflation will probably remain subdued.

All will seem sustainable, until it is not.

The bell will ring when some event shocks people into the recognition that: (a) the lack of real wealth creation accompanied by continuous, massive debt accumulation can never be reconciled; and (b) the political will does not exist – and may never exist – to call a halt to the debt accumulation and/or do what is necessary to enable an acceleration of real wealth creation.

It seems that a majority of people now believe that the redistribution of existing wealth is more important than the creation of new real wealth. They apparently believe, in violation of common sense and all accepted laws of physical science, that you can get something for nothing. That view has now become entrenched in every branch of the media, academia, politics, and – shockingly – many parts of the financial world.

At some point soon, we will cross the Rubicon. The financial adjustments will be breathtakingly swift. Then, the world as we know it will never be the same.

Fred A. Kingery is a self-employed, private-equity investor in domestic and international financial markets from New Wilmington, Pa., and a guest commentator for The Center for Vision & Values at Grove City College.

Who We Are

The Patriot Post is a highly acclaimed weekday digest of news analysis, policy and opinion written from the heartland — as opposed to the MSM’s ubiquitous Beltway echo chambers — for grassroots leaders nationwide. More

What We Offer

On the Web

We provide solid conservative perspective on the most important issues, including analysis, opinion columns, headline summaries, memes, cartoons and much more.

Via Email

Choose our full-length Digest or our quick-reading Snapshot for a summary of important news. We also offer Cartoons & Memes on Monday and Alexander’s column on Wednesday.

Our Mission

The Patriot Post is steadfast in our mission to extend the endowment of Liberty to the next generation by advocating for individual rights and responsibilities, supporting the restoration of constitutional limits on government and the judiciary, and promoting free enterprise, national defense and traditional American values. We are a rock-solid conservative touchstone for the expanding ranks of grassroots Americans Patriots from all walks of life. Our mission and operation budgets are not financed by any political or special interest groups, and to protect our editorial integrity, we accept no advertising. We are sustained solely by you. Please support The Patriot Fund today!


The Patriot Post and Patriot Foundation Trust, in keeping with our Military Mission of Service to our uniformed service members and veterans, are proud to support and promote the National Medal of Honor Heritage Center, the Congressional Medal of Honor Society, both the Honoring the Sacrifice and Warrior Freedom Service Dogs aiding wounded veterans, the National Veterans Entrepreneurship Program, the Folds of Honor outreach, and Officer Christian Fellowship, the Air University Foundation, and Naval War College Foundation, and the Naval Aviation Museum Foundation. "Greater love has no one than this, to lay down one's life for his friends." (John 15:13)

★ PUBLIUS ★

“Our cause is noble; it is the cause of mankind!” —George Washington

Please join us in prayer for our nation — that righteous leaders would rise and prevail and we would be united as Americans. Pray also for the protection of our Military Patriots, Veterans, First Responders, and their families. Please lift up your Patriot team and our mission to support and defend our Republic's Founding Principle of Liberty, that the fires of freedom would be ignited in the hearts and minds of our countrymen.

The Patriot Post is protected speech, as enumerated in the First Amendment and enforced by the Second Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, in accordance with the endowed and unalienable Rights of All Mankind.

Copyright © 2024 The Patriot Post. All Rights Reserved.

The Patriot Post does not support Internet Explorer. We recommend installing the latest version of Microsoft Edge, Mozilla Firefox, or Google Chrome.