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Duane V. Grassell / January 4, 2016

Eight Challenges for the Eventual Republican Nominee

Whoever the Republican nominee may be, their campaign will have many challenges from the moment the nomination is secured until election day. Any presidential campaign not only must convince the voter to exercise their franchise for their candidate, but they must also strategize how to win the majority of votes in the electoral college. As I wrote in an earlier post, the states misapply the electoral college with its winner-takes-all concept, meaning a slim majority in the state can get the candidate all the electoral votes of that state. As I argued in that article, this disenfranchises several congressional districts and the voters in those districts for both major parties. This means a presidential candidate really has 50 separate elections to win the top executive office.

Over a quarter of a century ago, this was not a problem for a GOP candidate. The biggest landslides in my adult life were Republican victories in 1972, 1984 and 1988 lead by three different candidates. However, the electoral map has changed since that 1988 landslide and 270 electoral votes is the magic number needed to win. Looking back at all the elections dating back to 1988, these are the challenges of the eventual GOP nominee.

1.) California — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1988. With 55 electoral votes, this is over 20% of what a campaign needs to win.

2.) New York — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since the 1984 Reagan reelection landslide. At present, this state will have 29 electoral votes or over 10% of the amount needed to win.

3.) Pennsylvania — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican candidate since 1988 and currently has 20 electoral votes.

4.) Illinois — This state also has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1988 and currently has 20 electoral votes.

5.) Michigan — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1988 and currently has 16 electoral votes.

6.) New Jersey — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1988 and currently has 14 electoral votes.

7.) Washington — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1984 and currently has 12 electoral votes.

8.) Massachusetts — This state has not given its electoral votes to a Republican since 1984 and currently has 11 electoral votes.

For the last 28 years, these eight states, each with 11 or more electoral votes, have not supported a Republican candidate and, combined, they control 179 electoral votes. Unless the GOP candidate makes some inroads in these states, the party that is the enemy of the people and of essential liberty has 2/3 of the electoral votes they need to win the presidency for another term.

In addition to these 8 states, there are 3 additional intangibles to consider in the upcoming election.

1.) The party that has no respect for the rule of law has been making a concerted effort to turn Texas into a blue state. With 38 electoral votes, if Texas were to turn blue, the election would become highly improbable for a GOP candidate to win. Texas has been inundated with immigrants who violated established law to enter our nation. Look for grassroots activism, political talking points, media support and lawsuits working together to try to give these lawbreakers the vote.

2.) A lone GOP advantage is the nation has a large sentiment against the current administration and the party of lies will have to run a candidate that can separate themselves from the current Constitution shredder in chief. Unfortunately, this leads to the GOP’s last intangible problem.

3.) The voters gave the GOP two huge landslides in 2010 and 2014 in both houses of Congress with the mandate to oppose the narcissist that leads the current administration. Instead of doing the will of the people and upholding their oaths to preserve and protect the Constitution, the leadership has repeatedly caved to the party committed to the agenda of bringing our great country down. With the surrender on the last budget deal, the GOP may have lost too many voters to win a major election.

This creates a lot of negatives to overcome unless the Republicans can nominate a true leader who can win the hearts of a large segment of the voting public who are unhappy with their federal government in its present form. The GOP will also need a candidate who will not surrender the blue states as previous candidates have done. In sports, no coach goes against a superior opponent with a thought that a loss is inevitable. Instead they develop a game plan they believe is the best path to an upset victory. Why is this not done in politics? More than just spending money on ads, candidates need to make numerous public appearances in these blue states to rally voters to their cause. The purpose of being a candidate is to sell yourself, your candidacy and your platform to as much of the voting public as possible up to the last day of the election. When a candidate writes off a state, as other GOP candidates have done, they send a message to the voters of that state that they are a loser. Losing can become contagious. Our country can’t afford an opposition party that acts like a loser.

With the primary season beginning next month, those of us who vote in Republican primaries need to consider who the best candidate will be. Will they preserve and protect the Constitution and our essential liberties proscribed within? Will they fight to win in the blue states of the last 28 years up to the last day of the election? Will they stand up to the media and other “independent” advocacy groups that will make the extra effort to defeat them? Will they present themselves as a leader rather than a loser?

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