If you thought predicting the weather was hard, try predicting the primaries! If anyone had a tougher Saturday than Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), it was probably political pollsters. Obviously, last week’s GOP debate was a game-changer, and few knew how big of one until this weekend. After showing double-digit leads for Donald Trump in almost all of the four states up for grabs on Saturday, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) blew past projections and bested the front-runner in two (and possibly, three) states. When people say, “don’t believe everything you read,” it must apply double to pre-primary surveys!

With the exception of Kentucky, which was far and away Trump’s best performance of the night, the numbers tell a very different story than the lead-up to the votes in Louisiana, Kansas, and Maine. Cruz surged past Trump and the rest of the pack, racking up more delegates (69) than the outspoken billionaire (53) and Rubio (41, who has Puerto Rico to thank for the 23-delegate bump Sunday). After his best debate of the cycle, Ted’s momentum was undeniable where it counts: ballot totals. By night’s end, he and Trump were separated by only 234 votes out of the 622,579 cast. For a candidate slated to finish second in almost every state, the Texas senator closed a gap that by most pundits’ predictions would only widen after March 1. The overall front-runner finished above 40 percent in just one state, falling off from the pace he’d set earlier in the month.

Of course, most experts were curious how Saturday would impact the race given that these were all closed primaries and caucuses — meaning that only Republicans could vote. For Trump, the cushion he’d built from Democrats and Independents crossing over to vote GOP in open states obviously vanished. In fact, of the seven states that have held Republican caucuses (which many would argue require more organization to win), Trump has lost everywhere but Kentucky and Nevada. While the real estate mogul still added to his delegate count, Cruz’s surge does sting. The odds of Donald winning the GOP nomination took a heavy hit over the weekend — falling from 78 percent to 63 percent based on CNN’s Political Prediction Market. To date, Trump has racked up 44 percent of the delegates — with Cruz surging at 34 percent, and Rubio a distant third at 17 percent.

For the Florida senator, it was a dismal Saturday, capped off with just 18 delegates. Ohio Governor John Kasich (R) fared even worse at 10. In fact, the only place Rubio did manage to finish second was at the CPAC straw poll, which went decisively to Senator Cruz, who mopped up with 39.5 percent of conservatives’ support. (Trump, who canceled his appearance at the last minute, paid for it mightily, winning just 14.7 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 30 percent.) Cruz’s successes in Kansas and Maine — two radically different states — are even more interesting when you consider that he was trailing significantly in surveys as recently as last week. A much more moderate state, the Pine State easily went to the Texas senator, despite projections that he wouldn’t appeal to voters there.

The Trafalgar Group had Trump up six points in Kansas heading into Saturday. He lost it by a whopping 25! The story is even more stunning in Louisiana, where Donald bragged about his supposed 21-point lead the night before. Even RealClearPolitics had Trump up 15.6 percent. Now, the two leaders are virtually tied! Although reporters called my home state early for Trump (too early, they admit now), he and Cruz are now equal in delegates there with 18 — with 5 more at-large-delegates possible. (Read the latest on the Louisiana election drama here.)

“The finish in Louisiana was particularly noteworthy,” NRO’s Rich Lowry pointed out. “Trump had built up a big lead in the early voting, so big that the networks called it for Trump almost immediately on that basis, but Trump’s margin steadily eroded away as the votes that has been cast today came in. This was a sign that something had hurt Trump over the last several days — there are many things to choose from, but the debate looms particularly large.” Of the Louisiana votes actually cast on primary day, Cruz edged out Trump by .4 percent. Throughout his political career, people have counted Cruz out. The same thing happened when he ran for the Senate, and the polls weren’t in his favor. He didn’t give up then — and it’s clear he isn’t giving up now. Momentum is on Ted’s side, as more voters realize that this is a two-man race if America wants a constitutional conservative.

Originally published here.

A Raw Deal from Nathan Deal

Georgia Governor Nathan Deal (R) used to be a Democrat, and on Thursday, it was easy to see why. The longtime congressman-turned-governor sounded a lot like his old party last week when he lashed out at conservatives for wanting to stop the wave of LGBT persecution against Christians. For months, Georgians have been trying to find a path forward for legislation that would stop the government from punishing men and women of faith who believe differently about marriage than the five activists on the Supreme Court.

After extremists sank a Religious Freedom Restoration Act last year, leaders moved forward with what they called a Georgia Pastor Protection Act — which, unfortunately, does nothing to help government officials, wedding vendors, and business owners who morally oppose same-sex marriage. The state senate tried to correct some of the bill’s weakness by adding language similar to the First Amendment Defense Act, and it passed. Now, the Georgia House is trying to water it down more. But even that doesn’t satisfy Governor Deal, who thinks even the thinnest layer of conscience protections is a mistake.

Using his faith as a fig leaf to hide behind, Governor Deal tried to argue that Jesus himself would have fought the bill. “If you were to apply those standards to the teachings of Jesus, I don’t think they fit,” he said. “Why, for example, would he reach out to the woman at the well? She was an outcast, because of her social mores, and she was being rejected. She had to come in the heat of the day because she couldn’t come when the rest of the women came to the well to draw the water. I think what that says is that he says that we have a belief in forgiveness and that we do not have to discriminate unduly against anyone on the basis of our own religious beliefs.” Lawmakers, he said, need to “just take a deep breath, recognize that the world is changing around us.”

Yes, which is exactly why states are racing to pass protections — because the “changing world” is using the government as a weapon to bludgeon people of faith. Governor Deal insists that conservatives shouldn’t “feel threatened” by the Supreme Court’s ruling. Tell that to Kentucky Clerk Kim Davis, who was thrown behind bars for her Christian beliefs or former Atlanta Fire Chief Kelvin Cochran, who was terminated over a men’s Bible study on sexual morality. There are dozens of others who have been fined, suspended, fired, bankrupt, and threatened for believing about marriage the same thing President Obama did when he was elected.

Shame on Nathan Deal for trying to pin the blame for this mess on conservatives, who are only asking for the same right to live and work by their beliefs that the First Amendment already grants them. As people like Barronelle Stutzman, Aaron and Melissa Klein, Robert and Cynthia Gifford, Betty and Richard Odgaard will tell you, that’s not what’s happening. What’s happening is that Christians are being forced to violate their religious beliefs by their own government. It’s time to disarm government from their tools of persecution used against Christians who believe the Bible — with bills even stronger than Georgia’s — and practice the tolerance liberals preach.

Originally published here.

Faith in the Line of Fire

Like the rest of the country, we were stunned and saddened to hear about the shooting of Pastor Tim Remington in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. The beloved church leader, who was known throughout the community for his outreach to the addicted and incarcerated, was gunned down at church a day after opening a Ted Cruz rally with prayer. Although police have no idea if the two events are connected, the circumstances are certainly suspicious. Despite taking over six shots to the head, lung, hip, and shoulder, Pastor Remington’s survival is the stuff of miracles, doctors say. With bullets stopping short of the brain and spinal cord, the father of four is expected to make a full recovery.

While his family and congregation celebrate the good prognosis, disturbing questions still linger. Coeur d'Alene had already grown increasingly hostile toward Christians, as we know from Donald and Evelyn Knapp, a husband-and-wife pastor team that ran a wedding chapel called The Hitching Post. After declining to marry a same-sex couple, Idaho city officials had warned that the decision could send them straight to jail and/or bury them in debilitating fines. Obviously, the environment toward Christians and pastors preaching the Gospel has made a turn for the worst in the small northern town. How can it not when you have the government ordering believers to participate in things that violate their faith? Whatever the shooter’s motivations, until the policies change, tensions like these will not. In the meantime, we continue to pray for the Remingtons, Tim’s full and complete healing, and for the man responsible to be brought to justice.

Originally published here.