Most labor unions have been Democrat strongholds for decades. You could argue that unions were the original super PACs, using the dues of their members to donate heavily to Democrats and Democrat causes. A crack in that facade has appeared in the form of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters giving $45,000 to the Republican National Committee.

The gift marks the first time the Teamsters have given to the RNC since making a $15,000 donation in 2004. It doesn’t mean the union has switched allegiance, though. Unlike most other major unions, the Teamsters have yet to endorse Joe Biden, but the union did give the Democrat National Committee $135,000 in December. The RNC donation is also earmarked for use at the national convention in Milwaukee this summer, which may mean the union simply hopes to recoup that money with union labor.

Yet Donald Trump met with Teamsters chief Sean O'Brien in January and came away saying he had a “good shot” at receiving an endorsement. It is, after all, the first time the Teamsters have held interviews with the major candidates before issuing an endorsement. O'Brien acknowledged that “there’s no doubt” many of the union’s 1.3 million members are Republicans. Moreover, the Teamsters endorsed Ronald Reagan twice and then George H.W. Bush before backing every Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992. Endorsing Trump wouldn’t come completely out of the blue, pun intended, though it’s been a while.

Why give to the RNC now?

Trump seems poised to win the GOP presidential nomination, but he also has forced RNC chair Ronna McDaniel to announce her coming departure after several election cycles of failure. Last year was the worst fundraising year for the RNC since 2013 after Mitt Romney choked in a very winnable election the year before.

If big changes are coming at the RNC and perhaps the Oval Office, the Teamsters want to have a seat at the table.

Why does this matter?

Well, for one thing, Biden calls himself “the most pro-union president in American history,” even heading to the United Auto Workers picket line for 12 minutes to get some pictures last September. The UAW endorsed him last month, and the nation’s biggest union, the AFL-CIO, did so last June. Several others have done likewise because, again, unions tend to be Democrat strongholds. O'Brien also said the Biden administration has “been great for unions.”

Union leaders certainly love Democrats. Union members, however, are not blind to economic reality, and the Teamsters may feel this more acutely than others. Trump understands this, saying, “I don’t know if the top people will support me — we’re gonna have to find that out — but within the union itself, I have tremendous support.”

He’s not wrong. “Union members tend to vote Democratic, with 56% of members and households backing Biden in 2020,” reports the Associated Press. That’s not exactly overwhelming support for the Democrat.

A lot of truckers are Teamsters, and they know perhaps better than anyone the economic malaise brought about by Biden’s policies. We don’t often write about diesel, but we did note in May 2022 that one consequence of Bidenomics was record prices for diesel. When Trump left office, it was $2.63 a gallon, on its way back up from pandemic lows but lower than the roughly $3 average in 2019. Under Biden, diesel prices reached a record high of $5.81 in June 2022 before settling back to $4.10 today, still about 55% higher than in January 2021. #InflationIs3%

(Note: If you’d prefer to trust the “fact-checkers” at USA Today circa March 2021, “Joe Biden isn’t to blame for rising diesel prices.” No president goes out and changes the numbers on gas station signs, but policies matter.)

Record diesel prices caused supply chain disruptions because truckers simply couldn’t afford to take loads of goods from Point A to Point B. It’s little surprise that their union might be thinking twice about four more years of Biden finishing the job.

For similar reasons, there’s been a reorienting of sorts with the two major parties. Whereas the GOP was once considered the party of big business while Democrats were for the working man, that’s no longer true. Precious few large companies are headed by Republicans these days, having been commandeered by highly educated woke leftists instead. And non-college-educated blue-collar folks make up a larger share of the GOP electorate these days. To overgeneralize, the Democrats own the wealthy elites and the very poor; Republicans thrive in the middle.

Michigan and Pennsylvania could be in play in November, and union workers are a big factor. If they vote based on economic conditions, look out, Joe.