In Brief: Trump’s Reaganite ‘Iron Dome’ Idea
Relying on the threat of a second strike makes even less sense today than it did during the Cold War.
Ronald Reagan is largely credited with winning the Cold War. Of significance was Reagan’s Star Wars program, which was advertised as a missile defense system that would be able to protect the U.S. from a Soviet missile attack. While that program never came into full existence, it is largely responsible for the development of the “Iron Dome,” which Israel has successfully used to protect itself from missile attacks.
Shay Khatiri, vice president and senior fellow of the Yorktown Institute, notes that Donald Trump in his interview with Elon Musk raised the idea of developing an Iron Dome for the U.S.
Our present strategy was born decades ago. In the early years of the Cold War the U.S. faced a choice between pursuing missile defense and nuclear deterrence. Policymakers chose the latter, and the strategy held that a large enough arsenal would defer any adversary from striking first.
The approach is known as the second-strike strategy or, as historian Keith Payne has called it, “the great American gamble.” The theory assumes that our foes won’t misjudge or misunderstand us. It has worked — but sometimes precariously. In 1983, Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov’s judgment alone helped prevent nuclear escalation. When Oko, the Soviets’ early-warning detection system, identified what appeared to be five incoming American missiles, Petrov judged that such a small strike was illogical and likely a false alarm. He was correct. A man of poorer judgment might have immediately reported the alert to his superiors, who would have had only minutes to decide whether to retaliate.
Khatiri observes that while the second-strike theory worked during the Cold War, that does not necessarily hold true today.
Perhaps the status quo’s biggest flaw, however, is moral. The government’s first duty is to protect its citizens. Our nuclear strategy, by contrast, leaves the American people vulnerable to nuclear annihilation.
Ronald Reagan abhorred this threat. In a visit to a North American Aerospace Defense Command base in 1979, he asked the commander, Gen. James E. Hill, what would happen if the Soviets launched a missile against an American city. Hill replied that “by the time the officials of the city could be alerted that a nuclear bomb would hit them, there would be only 10 or 15 minutes left.” “We couldn’t stop it,” Hill added. Reagan took issue that the nation was so helpless. “The only option a president would have would be to press the button or do nothing,” he confided in his aide on the way back to California. “They’re both bad.”
Thus, with the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), known more famously as Star Wars, Reagan eventually pressured Moscow during the nuclear arms race into accepting defeat. Reagan’s message was simply: With Star Wars, we can stop you from hitting us with nukes. At the same time, we can rain them down on you.
Khatiri believes that Trump taking a cue from Reagan’s foreign policy actions is a good thing.
