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August 26, 2024

China in Space

Beijing’s space policy and its meteoric rise to near the top in the world should concern every American.

The U.S. has been the world leader in space for a very long time. America is the only nation to have ever landed people on the moon, and we did it in 1969 — a remarkable achievement by any standard. After WWII, the Soviets started the space race with the launch of Sputnik. Using our industrial base, technical might, and determination, we became dominant in space in terms of the number of launches, reaching the moon with manned space flight and superior technology.

Post-Cold War, the International Space Station is the clear winner in terms of endurance in space, having now been occupied since 2000. The U.S. has put far more people in space than any other nation. In recent years, the U.S. has dominated the world in the number of successful flights, in reusable technology, and in the military use of space for offensive and defensive uses, surveillance and detection, navigation, and communications.

However, China has made becoming dominant in space another national priority. In 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, “To explore the vast cosmos, develop the space industry, and build China into a space power is our eternal dream.”

General Stephen Whiting, head of the U.S. Space Force, said in April, “Frankly, China is moving at a breathtaking speed. Since 2018, China has more than tripled their on-orbit intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance satellites.”

He added, “And with these systems, they’ve built a kill web over the Pacific Ocean to find, fix, track and, yes, target United States and allied military capabilities.”

In recent years, China has greatly accelerated its space program. In the past decade, the U.S. had 551 launches, and China is not far behind at 410. Back in NASA’s heyday, it had a budget of ~4% of the national budget. Its budget today is 0.5% of the national budget, demonstrating that we are no longer serious about being the leader in space.

We cannot afford to lose space supremacy to China. To allow the Chinese to exceed us in capability in space is to cede them the high ground and put everything we value, every American, at risk. If they rule space, they can rain fire down upon us at will. Their behavior since Mao won China’s civil war is a bloody one with millions killed, so they will not hesitate to use their power to subdue America if they gain the upper hand in space.

China has succeeded in some aspects of the space race beyond that of the U.S. For example, as CNN World reported in April 2024, “China’s Chang'e-6 lunar lander successfully touched down on the far side of the moon Sunday morning Beijing time, in a significant step for the ambitious mission that could advance the country’s aspirations of putting astronauts on the moon. The Chang'e-6 probe landed in the South Pole-Aitken Basin, where it will begin to collect samples from the lunar surface, the China National Space Administration announced. China’s most complex robotic lunar endeavor to date, the uncrewed mission aims to return samples to Earth from the moon’s far side for the first time.”

The National Security Space Association’s “Strategic Implications of China’s Cislunar Space Activities” report says:

The United States and People’s Republic of China (PRC) are engaged in a long-term geopolitical competition. China seeks to supplant the United States as the dominant power on Earth and alter the international system in ways favorable to its national interests. The intensifying competition is mirrored in near-Earth space and poised to extend throughout the Earth-Moon system. The PRC sees itself in a new space race with America that it intends to win. The extension of the competition to cislunar space – the region of outer space between the Earth and the Moon – is a direct outgrowth of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aim to reestablish China as the world’s dominant power. China considers space a “critical domain in international strategic competition.” Beijing’s space programs and activities are intended to overtake the United States as the world’s leading spacefaring nation by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC’s founding, if not sooner. China is undermining American strategic advantages in near-Earth space and pursuing a robust mix of military capabilities to contest freedom of access to and operations in near-Earth space. Concurrently, it is conducting operations in cislunar space and has even more ambitious future space plans. Lagrange points, lunar transfer orbits, lunar orbits, and the Moon’s surface are “strategic key points” and “strategic thoroughfares” in cislunar space from which China could exert influence in or control over the Earth Moon system. The stratagems the CCP employs with respect to its space ambitions are consistent with how it pursues terrestrial objectives. Besides blandishment, inducement, and deception, the CCP uses coercion to erode established norms, undermine the rules-based international order, seize territory, and change international boundaries. China’s efforts to exert influence on or control over cislunar space are likely to employ similar means and methods. This includes asserting claims of sovereignty, waging political, economic, and legal warfare, conducting grey zone operations, and developing advanced military and intelligence capabilities to coerce the U.S. and other nations to accede to the PRC’s claims.

The Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2025 contains a provision directing a briefing “on a strategy for DOD’s activities and interests in cislunar space.” According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, “The Senate committee laid out nine goals for the strategy, but the most important ones are to define DOD’s goals and priorities; assess potential threats; identify key partnerships; specify required investments; and enumerate necessary force structure changes.” So, some of our congressional leaders recognize the importance of space to our nation’s future.

This is just a small sampling of what could be reported on space and its importance to U.S. power in the future. The nation’s leaders need to wake up to the strategic importance of space in both the military and commercial sectors and take steps to ensure we remain the leader in space and space technology. Not only do our national prestige and world leadership depend on leading in space, but the safety and well-being of our citizens depend on this leadership as well.

The new space race with China is even more important than the “Star Wars … Strategic Defense Initiative” space race with the Soviet Union back during Ronald Reagan’s presidency. We won that race. Do we have the will and wisdom to win this race with China?

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