The People Aren’t Buying It
Despite the media’s worst efforts, Democrat and Republican data analysts are now “incredibly bullish” about Donald Trump’s chances.
The last time Mark Halperin made news, it wasn’t in a good way.
Seven years ago, the Leftmedia were washing their hands and feet of the longtime left-leaning political analyst and writing his epitaph. It was the Age of MeToo, and Halperin was embroiled in an alleged sexual misconduct scandal.
Reports of Halperin’s media death, though, were greatly exaggerated. Recently, during a livestream on his media platform 2WAY, the bestselling author of Game Change sounded the alarm about the Kamala Harris campaign by admitting what everyone else has been sensing: that the electoral tide has turned away from Harris and toward Donald Trump:
In the conversations I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish.
It’s hard to quantify “extremely bullish,” but it can’t be good news for Harris. Indeed, Trump’s polling numbers are far stronger today against Harris than they were on the same day four years ago against Joe Biden or eight years ago against Hillary Clinton. And it’s both Republican and Democrat polling analysts who’ve noticed.
The latest poll from NBC News, for example, is no doubt causing Democrats to reach for the Maalox: The peacock network has the race knotted at 48-48 when the same poll taken a month ago had Harris ahead 49-44.
“Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll,” the network reports, “with Trump bolstered by Republicans coming back home to support him after last month’s rough debate and a subsequent polling deficit, as well as by a favorable voter assessment of Trump’s term as president.”
The NBC News poll isn’t alone in noticing this trend. Quinnipiac now has Trump ahead in two must-win states for Harris: 50-47 in Michigan and 48-46 in Wisconsin.
Back to Halperin, who cautioned the Democrats about behaving like ostriches:
For you Harris people on here complaining that we’re talking about problems in the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to put your head in the sand about it. If you want to go watch MSNBC primetime and hear how great things are going for the Harris campaign, you’re welcome. But if you want to understand what’s actually happening, we’re here to tell you. I just saw some new private polling today, that’s very robust private polling, she’s in a lot of trouble.
Regarding the polls, what you see is what you get with Harris. So a 48-48 tie with Trump in the NBC News poll, for example, is actually disastrous news for her because a) she’s the incumbent, and late undecideds tend to break away from the incumbent; and b) because where pollsters are concerned, there are perhaps millions of “shy” Trump voters out there, but not a single shy Harris voter anywhere to be found.
Which is why the most knowledgeable Democrats are panicking. And why people like James Carville have gone from offering Harris advice on her messaging to laughably attacking Trump as the second coming of Adolf Hitler.
“Trump has announced that he will be giving a speech at Madison Square Garden on October 27th,” Corporal Cueball told Jen Psaki this weekend. “Please, Google ‘Madison Square Garden February 10th, 1939’ and see what happened there. They are telling you exactly what they’re going to do. They are telling you, ‘We are going to institute a fascist regime.’ … The entire Constitution is in jeopardy. The Supreme Court and Clarence Thomas have totally greenlighted the idea that you could use the military to round up your political enemies.”
Trump isn’t a Nazi, and no sentient American voter believes that he is. But Carville and his ilk have already played all their other cards.