(The first of this two-part series is here.)

Joint INDOPACOM activities

• U.S., Japanese, Indian, Australian, and South Korean navies conducted complex exercises in the waters near Guam. This 29th iteration of Quad Exercise Malabar saw a Royal Australian Navy frigate, an Indian Navy frigate, a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer, and an American Burke-class destroyer conduct complex fleet exercises together. They were joined by a Japanese Maritime Patrol Aircraft and a P-8A Poseidon, along with a U.S. attack submarine and an explosive ordnance disposal mobile unit. These exercises demonstrate a strong commitment among our Pacific allies to blunt efforts by China to dominate in international waters in the South China Sea and the Pacific.

• Taiwan’s president announced a proposal for a $40 billion defense supplemental this week that would fund an island-wide air defense system and the procurement of missiles, drones, and other anti-invasion capabilities. A lot of these systems will be bought from the U.S., which is key, as compatibility and interaction will be intense for the potential future defense of Taiwan. It is an exceptionally good sign that Taiwan is heavily investing in defensive weapons to preserve its future. The United States Naval Institute reports, “A Taiwanese drone firm held sea trials with six unmanned surface vessels last month ahead of a roughly $1 billion project that aims to procure up to 1,350 sea drones for coastal defense purposes against a potential Chinese invasion. Thunder Tiger Corporation, a locally based firm specializing in the construction of unmanned systems, deployed six SeaShark 680 drones for swarming formations tests in Southern Taiwan.” “The SeaShark 680 is a key weapon for asymmetric warfare in the Taiwan Strait, possessing high-precision sensing and swarm technology, and will become a cutting-edge weapon for safeguarding the Taiwan Strait.” “One of the larger variants, the SeaShark 800, can deploy payloads up to 2,204 pounds or 1,000 kilograms.”

• U.S./Philippines cooperation continues to grow, as is evidenced by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement that gives the U.S. access to nine Philippine bases, including sites closer to China. This gives U.S forces access to stockpiled munitions, fuel, and logistics, which gives the Navy and Marines and the Philippines much faster response options to any move against Philippine-held islands and reefs. The U.S. has reaffirmed the Mutual Defense Treaty that covers Philippine ships, aircraft, and forces in the South China Sea, including the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, subjects of unlawful Chinese harassment for years.

• Japan is investing heavily in building up its armed forces due to the threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and threats even to the Japanese homeland and various islands, some close to Taiwan, that are part of Japan. In recent years, the PRC has used intimidation-type tactics against Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and others to try to stake a claim on and control the South China Sea and the seas around Taiwan and even approaches to Japan. Japan is mounting a very strong effort to defend its sovereign territory wherever it is in the area and is investing significant resources in building up its military in response. Japan has made it clear it will defend its territory, including the Senkaku Islands, that are in close proximity to Taiwan and threatened by the PRC. Japan’s new prime minister has made very strong statements about the defense of Japan and plans to significantly build up its armed forces, aiming for 2% of GDP by 2027. The Japanese plan to cooperate even more fully with the U.S. and other allies in the area. They are making major investments in standoff defense capabilities, long-range missiles, precision weapons, missile defense radars and interceptors, unmanned systems (drones, unmanned vessels), and enhanced detection and tracking.

Recruitment/retention.

The Navy announced that its 40,600-person goal for 2025 was met three months early. It also announced that retention is at 99% of the goal. These are signs that the Navy is viewed as on course and a viable choice for young people, especially in the demographics that traditionally view service to the nation as an honorable and rewarding potential career field. The USMC announced that it had reached its retention goal earlier than ever. These achievements represent a dramatic upward trend from the situation during the last administration. Recruiting and retention suffered greatly for four years due to the Navy being viewed by its core demographic recruiting sources as distracted, off course, and not the place for white, southern males due to political agendas being pursued by the party then in power. With the military now focused on readiness, warfighting, and bringing pain and death to our enemies, those traditional sources of manpower for the Navy and Marine Corps are signing up in droves.

Operations in Southern Command.

An estimated 11 ships are now operating in the Southern Command to combat narco-terrorism. Thus far, the Navy has sunk more than 20 drug-running boats and killed more than 80 drug smugglers. In addition, air assets, including P-8 reconnaissance aircraft, are being used, and among the forces is an Amphibious Ready Group and a Marine Expeditionary Group with an estimated 4,500 sailors and troops.

Navy by the Numbers:

Number of ships in commission: The Navy is now at 290 combat force ships. The Navy is expected to dip to a new low during FY 2026 to 287 combat force ships due to scheduled decommissioning. The good news is that the Navy expects funding for 19 ships in FY 2026, so the numbers should start to go gradually up, especially with the new, stronger emphasis on shipbuilding and shipbuilding oversight, and improvements in capacity due to more investment in capability at many of the shipyards. The best estimate at this stage is that by the end of FY 2026, the Navy will be at 296 ships and will show increased numbers in the following years.

Number ready to surge: In round numbers, the Navy has 100 ships deployed, 100 ships in long-term maintenance, and 100 ships in-port in shorter duration maintenance and crew rest periods. The Navy’s goal is to have 80% of the latter category ready to “surge” on short notice to deploy by 2027. As of last report, the Navy today would only be able to surge about 67% of those ships. So, the trend is positive if the Navy stays on track to reach 80% in-port ships ready to surge in a year from now.

Conclusion

The Navy is a critical component of our nation’s defense establishment. The Navy/Marine Corps team is a massive organization with approximately 770,000 people (sailors, Marines, civilians, contractors). With a budget approaching $300 billion, ~100 bases worldwide, 290 combat force ships, 2,500+ aircraft (fighters, helicopters, transports, special ops, training, maritime patrol, and electronic warfare), and supported by our industrial base of literally thousands of companies. While others and I have been quite critical in recent years about the Navy’s flaws and failures, it is important to recognize how incredibly huge, complex, and difficult it is to operate and lead the Navy. That we have some institutional failures along the way are inevitable due to the sheer size of the enterprise, the difficulty of the things we are trying to accomplish, and obstacles to success put in the way of the Navy by external factors such as the actions of our enemies and the uncertain and even mercurial way the politics and the Congress that fund and control the Navy themselves operate. We can be justifiably grateful for the many good things about the Navy and its leadership that we can point to, and the potential for even better days ahead as the Navy-Marine Corps team seeks to field and operate the forces that will deter our enemies and successfully defend us and our interests in times of war.