Donald Trump’s favorite foreign policy weapon is tariffs; his favorite economic fixer is also tariffs. He’s said as much, stating last year, “I love tariffs. Most beautiful word, but I’m not allowed to say that anymore. Tariff is my favorite word. I love the word tariff. We’re becoming rich as hell. We have a big case in front of the Supreme Court, but I can’t imagine it because this is what other nations have done to us.”

From Trump’s perspective, the world has taken advantage of America, and as a result, the American working class finds itself poorer for it. America’s trade partners have taken advantage of selling their goods in the U.S. free of tariffs while imposing levies on American goods entering their countries. This has resulted not only in trade imbalances but also in the offshoring of much of America’s manufacturing, gutting a number of industries and shrinking working-class jobs.

Trump wants to bring back these lost jobs and reestablish America’s manufacturing industries. And as noted above, Trump’s tool — and seeming only tool — for accomplishing this is tariffs.

Broadly speaking, Trump’s idea makes sense. However, when it comes to lowering Americans’ cost of living and recovering from the Biden-era’s devastatingly high inflation, the two seem to be at odds.

Tariffs are taxes. And while the tariff is imposed directly on companies that import goods into the U.S., companies predictably calculated the added costs of tariffs into the price of their goods and raised prices to compensate. Therefore, it’s the consumer who ends up paying the tariff tax.

In a recently released study, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that the vast majority of Trump’s tariffs have been paid by Americans. The institute calculated that just 4% of tariff costs over the last year were absorbed by companies shipping goods into the U.S., whereas 96% of the cost was passed on to the American consumer.

While the Trump administration boasts of having brought in some $200 billion in additional revenue to the federal government’s coffers directly from the tariffs, it’s really the American consumer who has footed the bill. As the Kiel Institute’s study concludes:

Americans, not foreigners, are bearing almost the entire cost of U.S. tariffs, according to new research that contradicts a key claim by President Trump and suggests he might have a weaker hand in a reemerging trade war with Europe.

The institute came to this conclusion after analyzing $4 trillion in shipments to the U.S. from January 2024 through November 2025.

The tariffs have hurt the American consumer in two ways. Foreign companies have either raised the price of their exported goods in order to absorb the cost of tariffs, and/or they have cut down on the number of goods they export to the U.S. This second reality has created a form of artificial scarcity, making certain goods less available to the American consumer, which in turn raises the overall price of those goods.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court has yet to issue its decision on the constitutionality of Trump’s invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which he has used in large measure to wield his favorite tool.

During oral arguments, the justices appeared skeptical of Trump’s position, which might be a clue to how the court will rule — against Trump. However, they may not rule against him because doing so would severely upset the proverbial apple cart. Tying Trump’s hands from using his favorite and most consequential foreign policy tool could also hurt the American consumer even more, as companies that paid the tariffs would be entitled to a refund.

Would the American consumer see any of these refunds, since they have effectively already paid the cost of these tariffs? The answer is obviously no. Which is one reason why the Court may not rule against Trump.

Whatever the outcome of the court case, it’s Americans who have paid the most for Trump’s tariff policy.