Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against the former Soviet state seems to be nowhere near ending. Having ground down to a war of attrition, many have long assumed that eventually Russia’s size and economic advantage would force Ukraine to either capitulate and seek a peace deal or collapse before the Russian war machine.

However, Ukraine is nowhere near giving in to Putin’s aims, and indeed, it has begun to turn the tide against the Russians.

The fact that the expected Russian spring offensive has turned out to be little more than a dud only reinforces the growing view that the war has swung Ukraine’s way. According to Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrski, so far this year, the Ukrainian military has recaptured roughly 232 square miles of territory, mostly in the southeastern region of the country.

Furthermore, Ukraine’s development of longer-range cruise missiles has allowed it to hit targets deep inside Russia, as was recently seen with strikes against a fuel depot and a Russian naval base on the outskirts of St. Petersburg.

Ukraine’s drone technology is primarily responsible for this turn in fortunes, as upwards of 90% of Russian casualties are now due to Ukrainian First Person View (FPV) drones. Not only is Ukraine having increasing success on the frontlines, but more significantly, it has been able to consistently and regularly hit Russian infrastructure supply lines miles behind the frontlines.

So successful have these efforts been that the Crimean peninsula has been nearly cut off from supplies, such as food and fuel. And the one land road into Crimea from Russia has become so frequently attacked by Ukrainian drones that the Russians have set up dummy trucks and equipment in an effort to deceive at least a few of the drones. That speaks of the fear and desperation the Russians, well behind the front lines, are feeling.

Given the current situation, several former U.S. generals have concluded that Ukraine now has the upper hand. As retired Lieutenant General Robert Ashley contends, “I would assess operationally Ukraine is winning in the context they are defeating enemy operational objectives, creating conditions for follow-on operations and preserving freedom of action.”

Former U.S. Marine Corps infantry officer and Ukraine-based military analyst Rob Lee notes how far Ukraine has come in its drone warfare strategy in its ability to target Russians behind the front lines. “Ukraine just lacked this capacity last year, the ability to hit targets at 50 to 100 kilometers (30 to 60 miles) past the front line. They’re doing that very often, basically every day now. And the quantities of these drones they’re using is only going to increase.”

That is an interesting factor. Ukraine’s weapons manufacturing is becoming increasingly more sophisticated and impressive. The nation is pumping out millions of FPV drones, but as noted above, it has also developed its own cruise missile. The FP-5 has a 3,000 km range and packs a bigger punch than American Tomahawk missiles.

Lee observes that Ukraine has increased its use of these weapons. “Command posts are getting targeted, warehouses with ammunition, vehicles,” he notes. “And so over time, it’s going to degrade what gets to the front line.”

While the retired U.S. generals are quick to note that the situation in the war could change quickly, right now, as things stand, Ukraine is seeing greater success. Beyond the growing casualty numbers, Ukraine has ratcheted up the economic toll on Russia. Unless something changes, the question will be: how long will or can Vladimir Putin put up with fighting a war his military is slowly losing?