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May 9, 2016

The War on the Islamic State Is Far From Over

The forward progress against ISIL may be nearing a stall.

Two unrelated stories demonstrate the enormity of the problem anti-terrorism officials face in their quest to uproot and purge the Islamic State. A weekend article in The Washington Post warns that the forward progress against ISIL in the Middle East may be nearing a stall: “After months of un­expectedly swift advances, the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State is running into hurdles on and off the battlefield that call into question whether the pace of recent gains can be sustained. Chaos in Baghdad, the fraying of the cease-fire in Syria and political turmoil in Turkey are among some of the potential obstacles that have emerged in recent weeks to complicate the prospects for progress.”

The article continues, “Others include small setbacks for U.S.-allied forces on front lines in northern Iraq and Syria, which have come as a reminder that a strategy heavily reliant on local armed groups of varying proficiency who are often at odds with one another won’t always work.”

Meanwhile, in Africa, a potentially significant terrorist attack involving anthrax was recently averted. “Kenyan police announced [last] week that they had arrested a man interning at a Kenyan hospital who was planning a major anthrax attack on the country,” reports Joshua Meservey in a Daily Signal piece titled “Anthrax Terror Plot Shows ISIS’ Reach Into East Africa.” He adds, “Authorities believe the man, Mohammed Abdi Ali, is part of an Islamic State-linked East African terror network that has been radicalizing East Africans and facilitating their travel to Libya, Iraq, and Syria, where the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, is most active.”

Americans rightly wonder if ISIL can be restrained from wreaking such havoc here. But last week, James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, said, “That’s something we worry about a lot in the United States, that [the Islamic State] could conjure up a raid like they did in Paris or Brussels.” In Clapper’s opinion, “They do have that capacity.” The Islamic State is going to be a nemesis for years (decades?) to come. As we’re seeing in the Middle East, fighting terrorists even on their home turf isn’t as simple as it sounds. All the while, ISIL’s tentacles are gradually expanding. About the only thing we know for certain is that its reach is probably far greater than anyone thinks possible.

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