On Sunday, Colombians surprised President Juan Manuel Santos and many outside observers when they voted against a government-negotiated peace deal with the left-wing guerilla group known as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Polling had indicated that the peace deal would easily pass, but the stunning defeat left Santos scrambling to salvage a deal he’d work years to negotiate. With the death toll of more than 220,000 from over 50 years of battling FARC, it was widely believed that Colombians were ready for peace even if it was not the best of terms. The deal would have allowed FARC fighters to avoid justice for their crimes, control 31 radio stations and receive unelected seats in the congress.

There are a couple of takeaways from this vote. First, in light of how socialism has destroyed individual rights and the economy in the neighboring country to east, Venezuela, Colombians may have become rather wary of anything that would have promoted more socialism. The fact that the negotiations took place in communist Cuba did not present a very rosy picture of the deal either.

Second is the fact that polling is clearly not an exact science. In the case of the Colombian referendum the pre-vote polls had the measure passing by a nearly two to one margin. However, come the day of the vote, the measure was defeated by the thinnest of margins — 50.2% to 49.8%. When it comes to the upcoming presidential election in the U.S., one need remember that no matter how scientific the “experts” predictions the outcome may be, it’s never truly known until the people have voted.