In Brief: The Contradictions of Abortion Polling
More Americans say they’re “pro-choice,” but views are more complicated if you read past the headline.
The pro-life movement has been very successful in recent decades in shifting public opinion in favor of saving preborn babies. In the wake of the Supreme Court leak, media organizations are trotting out pollsters to “prove” that Americans don’t want to overturn Roe v. Wade. The Wall Street Journal editorial board says caveat emptor.
The conventional wisdom on abortion polling is that the Supreme Court is walking into a gale-force political wind if it overturns Roe v. Wade. Gallup reported last week that 55% of Americans identify as pro-choice, up six points since 2021 and near a record high. The Journal’s poll last week says 68% of people hope the Supreme Court doesn’t completely overturn Roe.
Movement in such topline figures is meaningful, but it obscures as much as it reveals. What do people mean when they identify as pro-choice? In the Gallup survey, 67% of Americans say abortion should be “generally legal” in the first three months of pregnancy. But it falls precipitously to 36% in the second trimester and 20% in the final trimester.
The editors then point to what the Supreme Court is actually considering in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. Can Mississippi essentially ban abortions after 15 weeks? That’s what polling shows Americans support.
There are many pro-choice Americans who nonetheless oppose abortion in the second and third trimesters, and this isn’t necessarily inconsistent. One study of 2019 abortions in the U.S. says that 79% were performed at nine weeks or less of pregnancy, and 93% at 13 weeks or less.
That’s key context for the polls that ask whether abortion should be legal in “most” circumstances. Someone can say yes while still supporting restrictions like Mississippi’s.
To the point of overturning past Court precedent, the editors write:
The real contradiction in the polling is Roe, which has become a totem that doesn’t reflect the underlying policy views. Fifty-five percent of Americans tell Gallup that abortion should be generally illegal in the second trimester. Yet a majority say the Supreme Court should keep Roe. That circle can’t be squared, and it probably reflects that many Americans don’t realize what Roe really allows.
The Roe line of precedent enshrines a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, about 23 or 24 weeks. That’s almost the third trimester. In practice under Roe, however, abortion is legal right up to the day before birth and for any reason if a woman can find a doctor willing to perform it.
Widespread ignorance speaks incredibly poorly of public schools, as well as the mainstream media, both of which miseducate and misinform Americans. The Journal concludes:
Public opinion on abortion policy remains diverse and for the most part more moderate. How the politics shakes out depends on how the debate and policies go in the states. If the Supreme Court overturns Roe, some states will ban abortion and some will allow it with few limits.
Others might settle at 15 or 18 weeks, roughly where democratic laws in Europe have come out. The polling suggests that’s what many Americans favor. But whatever people tell pollsters about Roe as precedent, they can’t get the policy they seem to want until Roe goes and the political debate opens up.
