December 5, 2022

Georgia Election on My Mind

The runoff ending tomorrow will decide how much power Democrats wield in the Senate.

Two years ago, Democrats exploited the post-2020 election chaos to snag two Senate seats in Georgia’s runoff after the general election failed to produce a candidate with more than 50% of the vote. That gave them control of the Senate. Democrats already managed to retain at least 50 seats in November’s midterms, but they may be poised to repeat the feat of winning in Georgia in tomorrow’s runoff. Winning a 51st seat would tip some very important scales in the Democrats’ favor.

In January 2021, inheritance-welfare recipient Jon Ossoff defeated Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, then the richest member of Congress, for a six-year term. At the same time, Republican Senator David Perdue lost to Raphael Warnock, the radical “reverend” from MLK’s church in Atlanta. That election was only to fill out the six-year term of former Senator Johnny Isakson, who stepped down in 2019 due to health issues and died in 2021.

We argued at the time and stand by our analysis that Donald Trump cost the GOP those two Senate seats. He became obsessed with his “Stop the Steal” crusade to the point that he and his surrogates discouraged Georgia Republicans from voting because they couldn’t trust the system, while repelling moderates who weren’t going to go along with all that. Lo and behold, it worked, and two Democrats gave Chuck Schumer control of the Senate. Along with Nancy Pelosi’s House and Joe Biden’s White House, Democrats enjoyed full control of DC and set about to undo most of Trump’s legacy.

This time, Warnock faces Herschel Walker, a deeply flawed candidate who significantly underperformed other state-wide Republican candidates. As neither man reached the 50% threshold again in November, they face off in a runoff ending tomorrow (assuming we know the results). Neither man is an attractive choice, either, so go figure.

We say “ending tomorrow” because that’s a significant part of this story. As is the case across the country, Georgia allows for generous access to both early voting in person and mail-in ballots requested for any reason. Why states allow both of those things can be explained only by Democrats hoping to turn out the vote among their low-information constituents.

Despite the Democrats’ gross smears against Georgia’s 2021 election legislation as “Jim Crow 2.0,” voter turnout continues to set records in the Peach State, just as they want. As Atlanta has grown — fueled in large part by Hollywood’s expansion into the state — so have Democrat voter rolls. That doesn’t necessarily mean more fraud, just more Democrat voters.

Then again, expanding mail-in ballots virtually guarantees more fraud.

Democrats also have a superior ground game in getting out the vote, and they’ve spent roughly twice as much as Republicans on ads for Warnock and against Walker.

Republicans, meanwhile, are saddled with making a harder argument: Vote for Walker despite his flaws, and, by the way, voting shouldn’t be so ridiculously easy. Worse, many people hear the GOP saying, We don’t want you to vote, while Democrats are saying: Vote early! Vote by mail! Voting should be easy! In a way, it doesn’t matter what the ideologues on either side think about voting; what matters is the suburban Atlanta voter who rarely pays attention to politics but will show up to vote.

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