January 15, 2025

Trump’s Real Punishment

The fact that there will be no jail or probation for Trump does not mean he has not paid a high price.

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced last week in the bookkeeping case brought against him by Alvin Bragg, the elected Democratic district attorney of Manhattan. The sentence was effectively nothing. Although Trump had been convicted of 34 felonies, Judge Juan Merchan sentenced him to what is called “unconditional discharge,” which means no jail time, no probation, and no fine or other punishment.

The reason was practical. Merchan and Bragg would have been happy to send Trump to jail, but the fact that in a few days the defendant will become president of the United States put Merchan and the prosecutors in a bind. They’re a county judge and county prosecutors. They had no authority to imprison the president, to put the president on probation or to force the president to perform community service.

But the sentence of unconditional discharge did accomplish one thing. It formalized Trump’s guilty verdict, meaning that Trump is now officially a convicted felon. “This court has determined that the only lawful sentence that permits entry of judgment of conviction without encroaching on the highest office of the land is an unconditional discharge,” Merchan said.

That “entry of judgment of conviction” was key. All those Democrats and other Trump opponents who have long wanted to call Trump a “convicted felon”? Now they can, and they will be technically correct.

Still, the sentence was, in the words of the New York Times, “rare and lenient.” But that does not mean Trump has not been punished in the case. The truth is the opposite. Trump paid a serious price in time, money and reputation.

The prosecution — weak, ill-founded and politically motivated — began when Bragg indicted Trump on March 30, 2023. It was the first Trump indictment, and many observers, even some who were quite anti-Trump, saw it as the weakest of the criminal cases against the former president. The charges — falsifying business records to cover up a sexual dalliance — were misdemeanors that were past the statute of limitations. But Bragg inflated them into felonies by alleging that Trump altered his company’s bookkeeping in a plot to steal the 2016 election.

Even anti-Trump commentators found the legal thinking behind the case “remarkably unclear.” But the law allowed Bragg to bring the charges — we might learn more about that on appeal — and Trump had to defend himself.

It just so happened that the indictment came as 2024 Republican presidential caucus and primary campaigning was getting underway in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other states. It’s fair to say that Trump’s adversaries believed getting indicted would hurt Trump politically. They were very happy with that.

Instead, Trump went up in the polls, swamping his then-closest competitor in the Republican primary race, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump’s lead over DeSantis went from 15 points before the indictment to 32 points afterward. DeSantis later said that Trump’s indictments, begun by Bragg, “sucked all of the oxygen” out of the GOP race. But remember this: Trump’s adversaries, the ones trying to use the indictments against him, hoped the criminal charges would keep Trump from being elected president, not necessarily from being the Republican nominee. One school of thought saw Trump benefiting from the indictments in the GOP contest but at the same time becoming unelectable in a national race.

In any event, the Bragg indictment, followed by others, preoccupied Trump for the entire span of the Republican primary season. Then, on April 15, 2024, with the general election race against President Joe Biden effectively underway, the trial began in Manhattan. For seven weeks, Trump had to be present in the courtroom, day after day, instead of campaigning. Trump tried to make the best of things politically by holding mini-events in Manhattan and a rally in the Bronx, but the fact was, during a formative period of the national campaign, he was tied down in a courtroom.

After those seven weeks, on May 30, 2024, the deep-blue Manhattan jury convicted Trump on all 34 counts. In the middle of the campaign against Biden, Trump became, unofficially at least, a convicted felon. The worry among Republicans was that while Trump’s party was rock-solid behind him, the conviction might hurt him among the independents whose support Trump needed if he was to win.

Throughout this critical moment, the Bragg prosecution made huge demands on Trump’s time, his money and his political attention. And there was one more cost: reputation. Although anti-Trumpers had long called Trump all sorts of names — criminal wasn’t even the worst of them — the fact was, Trump, in his first 76 years of life, had never been charged with a crime. He was, at some level, mortified to be arraigned and brought to the courthouse each day to stand trial.

In his stump speeches, Trump often joked that he didn’t know how it happened, but he had been indicted more times than Al Capone. He spoke of his late parents, looking down on him from heaven, wondering how their son had become such a notorious criminal. He was speaking in jest, of course, but the joke, repeated so often, revealed a deep concern on Trump’s part.

In the end, of course, the Bragg prosecution did not keep Trump from being elected president. And now, the “unconditional discharge” sentence will have no effect on Trump’s preparations for a second term in the White House. But the fact that there will be no jail or probation for Trump does not mean he has not paid a high price for what at bottom was a baseless and politically targeted prosecution.

This content originally appeared on the Washington Examiner at washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/3283621/trump-real-punishment-hush-money-case//.

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