By Joshua Arnold

On his first trip abroad as U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio on Sunday convinced Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino Quintero to reevaluate his country’s relationship with China. On both the southern and northeastern tips of North America, the Trump administration is reinforcing initial proclamations of expansionism with coolheaded diplomacy aimed at securing vital American security interests.

“Secretary Rubio informed President Mulino and [Panamanian Foreign] Minister [Javier] Martínez-Acha that President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce reported in a statement.

China’s influence over the Panama Canal has steadily grown since the country became the first Latin American nation to join the controversial Belt and Road Initiative in 2017. In 2021, a Hong Kong-based company renewed a 25-year contract to operate the two entrance ports at either end of the canal. Two other Chinese state-owned firms are building a bridge over one of the canal’s entrances. Overall, “Chinese companies have been heavily involved in infrastructure-related contracts in and around the Canal in Panama’s logistics, electricity, and construction sectors,” according to the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

“If not a violation of the letter of the Panama Canal treaties, the Chinese operations certainly run counter to their spirit,” reflected National Review’s Rich Lowry.

“Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable,” Bruce continued, “and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty.”

Article II of the Panama Canal Neutrality Treaty of 1977 stipulates “the neutrality of the Canal in order that both in time of peace and in time of war it shall remain secure and open to peaceful transit by the vessels of all nations on terms of entire equality.” Article V further requires that “only the Republic of Panama shall operate the Canal and maintain military forces, defense sites and military installations within its national territory.” Chinese control threatens this neutrality.

Rubio’s threat to resort to “measures necessary” is most accurately read to include an option of military action. According to Annex A of the Neutrality Treaty, “the United States of America and the Republic of Panama shall each independently have the right to take such steps as each deems necessary, in accordance with its constitutional processes, including the use of military force in the Republic of Panama, to reopen the Canal or restore the operations of the Canal, as the case may be” (emphasis added).

The Panama Canal remains one of the most crucial waterways in the world, and it is particularly important for the U.S. The cross-continent canal route cuts a ship’s travel between New York City and San Francisco down from 27 days to 11 days, which allows the American navy to maneuver ships into position that much more quickly.

Additionally, the shortcut also provides huge savings for commercial shipping, especially American shipping. Approximately 40% of all U.S. container traffic traverses the canal, and 72% of all vessels passing through the canal are traveling to or from a U.S. port.

In response to Rubio’s stern warning, Mulino showed sensitivity to U.S. concerns. He said Panama would not renew its participation in China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and allow it to expire. He even offered to explore options for withdrawing from the initiative even sooner. He invited American companies to invest in the country’s infrastructure instead. He promised to audit the Hong Kong company operating Panamanian ports and review options for expelling it, and he reportedly offered to give U.S. naval ships free transit.

Panama also agreed to repatriate migrants who entered the U.S. illegally, joining Colombia and Venezuela in a growing trend. While Rubio was in Panama, he spoke at an event commemorating the first return flight, which deported “six or seven people with criminal histories” from the U.S. to Panama.

The only point Mulino reiterated is that the canal will remain under Panama’s control. This is a major source of pride to the inhabitants of Panama. But it is a matter of small importance to the U.S., so long as we can ensure its neutrality.

It’s difficult for now to judge how large an impact Rubio’s trip will have on the success of President Donald Trump’s new Panama policy. On the one hand, Panama only made initial concessions; it will take much longer for the strategically placed nation to sever its Chinese ties.

On the other hand, China seems worried that Panama intends to do just that. The Chinese Communist Party’s ambassador to Panama, Xu Xueyuan, complained that the U.S. had provoked a “tropical storm,” disrupting Panamanian sovereignty. The National Review editors characterized this reaction as “sounding — for good reason — like a country that is starting to get serious resistance to its play for influence in our hemisphere.”

Meanwhile, on the other side of the continent, another small nation offered the U.S. a similar deal, in response to Trump’s inquiries about purchasing Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Monday reiterated that Greenland is “not for sale,” but she offered to boost Denmark’s military commitments and invited the U.S. to expand its military presence on the island.

“I totally agree with the Americans that the High North, that the Arctic region is becoming more and more important when we are talking about defense and security and deterrence,” she said. “And it is possible to find a way to ensure stronger footprints in Greenland. They [the U.S.] are already there, and they can have more possibilities. And at the same time, we are willing to scale up from the Kingdom of Denmark. And I think NATO is the same. So, if this is about securing our part of the world, we can find a way forward.”

In both corners of the continent, Trump adopted a similar approach: open with an unacceptably aggressive bid, then negotiate down to address where America’s true interests lie. “We don’t want to have a hostile or negative relationship with Panama,” Rubio said, but we don’t want China to control the key strategic chokepoint in a crisis.

“Trump’s pushback against overweening Chinese influence in the canal is a welcome revival and application of the Monroe Doctrine, formulated by James Monroe and John Quincy Adams, which seeks to keep the Western Hemisphere free from imperial powers outside it,” wrote the National Review editors. “The ‘Roosevelt Corollary’ was that the U.S. may use military force to eject these powers. But Donald Trump’s approach in this case so far has been the opposite of Roosevelt’s. Trump bellows loudly, without any resort to the big stick.”

Joshua Arnold is a senior writer at The Washington Stand.